Cargando…
A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics
BACKGROUND: As climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change become more prevalent, public health authorities can expect to face an expanding spectrum of vector-borne diseases with increasing incidence and geographical spread. Common interventions include the use of l...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9548150/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36209182 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05481-7 |
_version_ | 1784805382869221376 |
---|---|
author | Roosa, Kimberlyn Fefferman, Nina H. |
author_facet | Roosa, Kimberlyn Fefferman, Nina H. |
author_sort | Roosa, Kimberlyn |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: As climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change become more prevalent, public health authorities can expect to face an expanding spectrum of vector-borne diseases with increasing incidence and geographical spread. Common interventions include the use of larvicides and adulticides, as well as targeted communications to increase public awareness regarding the need for personal protective measures, such as mosquito repellant, protective clothing, and mosquito nets. Here, we propose a simplified compartmental model of mosquito-borne disease dynamics that incorporates the use of personal protection against mosquito bites influenced by two key individual-level behavioral drivers—concern for being bitten by mosquitos as a nuisance and concern for mosquito-borne disease transmission. METHODS: We propose a modified compartmental model that describes the dynamics of vector-borne disease spread in a naïve population while considering the public demand for community-level control and, importantly, the effects of personal-level protection on population-level outbreak dynamics. We consider scenarios at low, medium, and high levels of community-level vector control, and at each level, we consider combinations of low, medium, and high levels of motivation to use personal protection, namely concern for disease transmission and concern for being bitten in general. RESULTS: When there is very little community-level vector control, nearly the entire population is quickly infected, regardless of personal protection use. When vector control is at an intermediate level, both concerns that motivate the use of personal protection play an important role in reducing disease burden. When authorities have the capacity for high-level community vector control through pesticide use, the motivation to use personal protection to reduce disease transmission has little additional effect on the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: While results show that personal-level protection alone is not enough to significantly impact an outbreak, personal protective measures can significantly reduce the severity of an outbreak in conjunction with community-level control. Furthermore, the model provides insight for targeting public health messaging to increase the use of personal protection based on concerns related to being bitten by mosquitos or vector-borne disease transmission. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05481-7. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9548150 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-95481502022-10-10 A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics Roosa, Kimberlyn Fefferman, Nina H. Parasit Vectors Research BACKGROUND: As climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change become more prevalent, public health authorities can expect to face an expanding spectrum of vector-borne diseases with increasing incidence and geographical spread. Common interventions include the use of larvicides and adulticides, as well as targeted communications to increase public awareness regarding the need for personal protective measures, such as mosquito repellant, protective clothing, and mosquito nets. Here, we propose a simplified compartmental model of mosquito-borne disease dynamics that incorporates the use of personal protection against mosquito bites influenced by two key individual-level behavioral drivers—concern for being bitten by mosquitos as a nuisance and concern for mosquito-borne disease transmission. METHODS: We propose a modified compartmental model that describes the dynamics of vector-borne disease spread in a naïve population while considering the public demand for community-level control and, importantly, the effects of personal-level protection on population-level outbreak dynamics. We consider scenarios at low, medium, and high levels of community-level vector control, and at each level, we consider combinations of low, medium, and high levels of motivation to use personal protection, namely concern for disease transmission and concern for being bitten in general. RESULTS: When there is very little community-level vector control, nearly the entire population is quickly infected, regardless of personal protection use. When vector control is at an intermediate level, both concerns that motivate the use of personal protection play an important role in reducing disease burden. When authorities have the capacity for high-level community vector control through pesticide use, the motivation to use personal protection to reduce disease transmission has little additional effect on the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: While results show that personal-level protection alone is not enough to significantly impact an outbreak, personal protective measures can significantly reduce the severity of an outbreak in conjunction with community-level control. Furthermore, the model provides insight for targeting public health messaging to increase the use of personal protection based on concerns related to being bitten by mosquitos or vector-borne disease transmission. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05481-7. BioMed Central 2022-10-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9548150/ /pubmed/36209182 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05481-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Roosa, Kimberlyn Fefferman, Nina H. A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics |
title | A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics |
title_full | A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics |
title_fullStr | A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed | A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics |
title_short | A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics |
title_sort | general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9548150/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36209182 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05481-7 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT roosakimberlyn ageneralmodelingframeworkforexploringtheimpactofindividualconcernandpersonalprotectiononvectorbornediseasedynamics AT feffermanninah ageneralmodelingframeworkforexploringtheimpactofindividualconcernandpersonalprotectiononvectorbornediseasedynamics AT roosakimberlyn generalmodelingframeworkforexploringtheimpactofindividualconcernandpersonalprotectiononvectorbornediseasedynamics AT feffermanninah generalmodelingframeworkforexploringtheimpactofindividualconcernandpersonalprotectiononvectorbornediseasedynamics |