Cargando…

Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

BACKGROUND: Increases in human mobility have been linked to rises in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. The pandemic era in Japan has been characterized by changes in inter-prefectural mobility across state of emergency (SOE) declarations and travel campaigns, but they have yet...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ghaznavi, Cyrus, Yoneoka, Daisuke, Tanoue, Yuta, Gilmour, Stuart, Kawashima, Takayuki, Eguchi, Akifumi, Kawamura, Yumi, Miyata, Hiroaki, Nomura, Shuhei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Japan Epidemiological Association 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9551293/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35781428
http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20220064
_version_ 1784806065445011456
author Ghaznavi, Cyrus
Yoneoka, Daisuke
Tanoue, Yuta
Gilmour, Stuart
Kawashima, Takayuki
Eguchi, Akifumi
Kawamura, Yumi
Miyata, Hiroaki
Nomura, Shuhei
author_facet Ghaznavi, Cyrus
Yoneoka, Daisuke
Tanoue, Yuta
Gilmour, Stuart
Kawashima, Takayuki
Eguchi, Akifumi
Kawamura, Yumi
Miyata, Hiroaki
Nomura, Shuhei
author_sort Ghaznavi, Cyrus
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Increases in human mobility have been linked to rises in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. The pandemic era in Japan has been characterized by changes in inter-prefectural mobility across state of emergency (SOE) declarations and travel campaigns, but they have yet to be characterized. METHODS: Using Yahoo Japan mobility data extracted from the smartphones of more than 10 million Japanese residents, we calculated the monthly number of inter-prefectural travel instances, stratified by residential prefecture and destination prefecture. We then used this adjacency matrix to calculate two network connectedness metrics, closeness centrality and effective distance, that reliably predict disease transmission. RESULTS: Inter-prefectural mobility and network connectedness decreased most considerably during the first SOE, but this decrease dampened with each successive SOE. Mobility and network connectedness increased during the Go To Travel campaign. Travel volume between distant prefectures decreased more than travel between prefectures with geographic proximity. Closeness centrality was found to be negatively correlated with the rate of COVID-19 infection across prefectures, with the strength of this association increasing in tandem with the infection rate. Changes in effective distance were more visible among geographically isolated prefectures (Hokkaido and Okinawa) than among metropolitan, central prefectures (Tokyo, Aichi, Osaka, and Fukuoka). CONCLUSION: The magnitude of reductions in human mobility decreased with each subsequent state of emergency, consistent with pandemic fatigue. The association between network connectedness and rates of COVID-19 infection remained visible throughout the entirety of the pandemic period, suggesting that inter-prefectural mobility may have contributed to disease spread.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9551293
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Japan Epidemiological Association
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-95512932022-11-05 Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan Ghaznavi, Cyrus Yoneoka, Daisuke Tanoue, Yuta Gilmour, Stuart Kawashima, Takayuki Eguchi, Akifumi Kawamura, Yumi Miyata, Hiroaki Nomura, Shuhei J Epidemiol Original Article BACKGROUND: Increases in human mobility have been linked to rises in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. The pandemic era in Japan has been characterized by changes in inter-prefectural mobility across state of emergency (SOE) declarations and travel campaigns, but they have yet to be characterized. METHODS: Using Yahoo Japan mobility data extracted from the smartphones of more than 10 million Japanese residents, we calculated the monthly number of inter-prefectural travel instances, stratified by residential prefecture and destination prefecture. We then used this adjacency matrix to calculate two network connectedness metrics, closeness centrality and effective distance, that reliably predict disease transmission. RESULTS: Inter-prefectural mobility and network connectedness decreased most considerably during the first SOE, but this decrease dampened with each successive SOE. Mobility and network connectedness increased during the Go To Travel campaign. Travel volume between distant prefectures decreased more than travel between prefectures with geographic proximity. Closeness centrality was found to be negatively correlated with the rate of COVID-19 infection across prefectures, with the strength of this association increasing in tandem with the infection rate. Changes in effective distance were more visible among geographically isolated prefectures (Hokkaido and Okinawa) than among metropolitan, central prefectures (Tokyo, Aichi, Osaka, and Fukuoka). CONCLUSION: The magnitude of reductions in human mobility decreased with each subsequent state of emergency, consistent with pandemic fatigue. The association between network connectedness and rates of COVID-19 infection remained visible throughout the entirety of the pandemic period, suggesting that inter-prefectural mobility may have contributed to disease spread. Japan Epidemiological Association 2022-11-05 /pmc/articles/PMC9551293/ /pubmed/35781428 http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20220064 Text en © 2022 Cyrus Ghaznavi et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Original Article
Ghaznavi, Cyrus
Yoneoka, Daisuke
Tanoue, Yuta
Gilmour, Stuart
Kawashima, Takayuki
Eguchi, Akifumi
Kawamura, Yumi
Miyata, Hiroaki
Nomura, Shuhei
Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan
title Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan
title_full Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan
title_fullStr Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan
title_full_unstemmed Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan
title_short Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan
title_sort inter-prefectural travel and network connectedness during the covid-19 pandemic in japan
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9551293/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35781428
http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20220064
work_keys_str_mv AT ghaznavicyrus interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT yoneokadaisuke interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT tanoueyuta interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT gilmourstuart interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT kawashimatakayuki interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT eguchiakifumi interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT kawamurayumi interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT miyatahiroaki interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan
AT nomurashuhei interprefecturaltravelandnetworkconnectednessduringthecovid19pandemicinjapan