Analysis and prediction of relative survival trends in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the United States using a model-based period analysis method

BACKGROUND: Survival rates are usually used to evaluate the effect of cancer treatment and prevention. This study aims to analyze the 5-year relative survival of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in United States using population-based cancer registry data. METHODS: A period analysis was used to evaluate the improvement in long-term prognosis of patients with NHL from 2004 to 2018, and a generalized linear model was developed to predict the 5-year relative survival rates of patients during 2019–2023 based on data from the SEER database stratified by age, sex, race and subtype. RESULTS: In this study, relative survival improved for all NHL, although the extent of improvement varied by sex, age group and lymphoma subtype. Survival improvement was also noted for NHL subtypes, although the extent varied, with marginal-zone lymphoma having the highest 5-year relative survival rate (92.5%) followed by follicular lymphoma (91.6%) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (87.3%). Across all subtypes, survival rates were slightly higher in females than in males. Survival rates are lower in the elderly than in the young. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that black patients had lower NHL survival rates than white patients. Survival rates for NHL were higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Patients with extra-nodal NHL had a higher survival rate than patients with nodal NHL. CONCLUSION: Overall, patient survival rates for NHL gradually improved during 2004–2018. The trend continues with a survival rate of 75.2% for the period 2019–2023. Analysis by NHL subtype and subgroups indicating that etiology and risk factors may differ by subtype. Identification of population-specific prevention strategies and treatments for each subtype can be aided by understanding these variations.