Recurrence of Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Surgery May Be Related to Intestinal Oxidative Stress and the Development of a Predictive Model

BACKGROUND: Early stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a high recurrence rate after surgery and lacks reliable predictive tools. We explored the potential of combining enhanced CT with gut microbiome to develop a predictive model for recurrence after early HCC surgery. METHODS: A total of 112 patients with early HCC who underwent hepatectomy from September 2018 to December 2020 were included in this study, and the machine learning method was divided into a training group (N = 71) and a test group (N = 41) with the observed endpoint of recurrence-free survival (RFS). Features were extracted from the arterial and portal phases of enhanced computed tomography (CT) images and gut microbiome, and features with minimum absolute contraction and selection operator regression were created, and the extracted features were scored to create a preoperative prediction model by using the multivariate Cox regression analysis with risk stratification analysis. RESULTS: In the study cohort, the model constructed by combining radiological and gut flora features provided good predictive performance (C index, 0.811 (0.650-0.972)). The combined radiology and gut flora-based model constructed risk strata with high, intermediate, or low risk of recurrence and different characteristics of recurrent tumor imaging and gut flora. Recurrence of early stage hepatocellular carcinoma may be associated with oxidative stress in the intestinal flora. CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully constructs a risk model integrating enhanced CT and gut microbiome characteristics that can be used for the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with early HCC. In addition, intestinal flora associated with HCC recurrence may be involved in oxidative stress.