Classifying home care clients’ risk of unplanned hospitalization with the resident assessment instrument

PURPOSE: To identify predictive case finding tools for classifying the risk of unplanned hospitalization among home care clients utilizing the Resident Assessment Instrument-Home Care (RAI-HC), with special interest in the Detection of Indicators and Vulnerabilities for Emergency Room Trips (DIVERT) Scale. METHODS: A register-based, retrospective study based on the RAI-HC assessments of 3,091 home care clients (mean age 80.9 years) in the City of Tampere, Finland, linked with hospital discharge records. The outcome was an unplanned hospitalization within 180 days after RAI-HC assessment. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the sensitivity and specificity were determined for the RAI-HC scales: DIVERT, Activities of Daily Living Hierarchy (ADLh), Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS), Changes in Health, End-Stage Diseases, Signs, and Symptoms Scale (CHESS), and Method for Assigning Priority Levels (MAPLe). RESULTS: Altogether 3091 home care clients had a total of 7744 RAI-HC assessments, of which 1658 (21.4%) were followed by an unplanned hospitalization. The DIVERT Scale had an AUC of 0.62 (95% confidence interval 0.61–0.64) when all assessments were taken into account, but its value was poorer in the older age groups (< 70 years: 0.71 (0.65–0.77), 70–79 years: 0.66 (0.62–0.69), 80–89 years: 0.60 (0.58–0.62), ≥ 90 years: 0.59 (0.56–0.63)). AUCs for the other scales were poorer than those of DIVERT, with CHESS nearest to DIVERT. Time to hospitalization after assessment was shorter in higher DIVERT classes. CONCLUSION: The DIVERT Scale offers an approach to predicting unplanned hospitalization, especially among younger home care clients. Clients scoring high in the DIVERT algorithm were at the greatest risk of unplanned hospitalization and more likely to experience the outcome earlier than others. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41999-022-00665-x.