Post-fracture serum cytokine levels are not associated with a later diagnosis of complex regional pain syndrome: a case-control study nested in a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) is a disabling pain disorder that is most common after a distal limb fracture. While the acute systemic immune response to the injury is thought to play a role in the development of CRPS, this hypothesis has never been tested directly. Thus, we evaluated whether elevated levels of circulating pro-inflammatory cytokines early after a fracture were associated with the development of CRPS. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a prospective cohort study. Individuals with wrist and/or hand fractures were recruited from specialist hand units. Baseline clinical data were obtained from participants within 28 days of fracture. CRPS status was determined 16 weeks after the fracture using a two-stage diagnostic process. Cytokine assays were obtained from all cases (defined using the Budapest criteria) and a random sample of those who did not have CRPS at 16 weeks. We calculated odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals to determine the risk of CRPS associated with the expression of each of 25 cytokines. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected for 702 consenting participants, of whom 535 provided blood samples. Follow-up at 16 weeks was 97.2%. 15 (2.2% of the cohort) met the Budapest CRPS criteria and 69 (including those who met the Budapest criteria; 9.8%) met the International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP) CRPS criteria. In all of the primary analyses (using Budapest criteria) and 49/50 secondary analyses (using IASP criteria), 95% confidence intervals for the association between cytokine levels and the risk of subsequently developing CRPS included the null value (OR = 1). However, the confidence intervals were wide. CONCLUSION: There was no evidence that early post-injury expression of systemic cytokines was associated with a CRPS diagnosis 16 weeks after injury. This study does not provide support for the hypothesis that innate immune activation has a determinative role in the development of CRPS. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-022-02910-z.