Exploring the risk factors of impaired fasting glucose in middle-aged population living in South Korean communities by using categorical boosting machine

OBJECTIVE: This epidemiological study (1) identified factors associated with impaired fasting glucose using 3,019 subjects (≥30 years old and <60 years old) without diabetes mellitus from national survey data and (2) developed a nomogram that could predict groups vulnerable to impaired fasting glucose by using machine learning. METHODS: This study analyzed 3,019 adults between 30 and 65 years old who completed blood tests, physical measurements, blood pressure measurements, and health surveys. Impaired fasting glucose, a dependent variable, was classified into normal blood glucose (glycated hemoglobin<5.7% and fasting blood glucose ≤ 100mg/dl) and impaired fasting glucose (glycated hemoglobin is 5.7-6.4% and fasting blood glucose is 100-125mg/dl). Explanatory variables included socio-demographic factors, health habit factors, anthropometric factors, dietary habit factors, and cardiovascular disease risk factors. This study developed a model for predicting impaired fasting glucose by using logistic nomogram and categorical boosting (CatBoost). RESULTS: In this study, the top eight variables with a high impact on CatBoost model output were age, high cholesterol, WHtR, BMI, drinking more than one shot per month for the past year, marital status, hypertension, and smoking. CONCLUSION: It is necessary to improve lifestyle and continuously monitor subjects at the primary medical care level so that we can detect non-diabetics vulnerable to impaired fasting glucose living in the community at an early stage and manage their blood glucose.