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The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2
In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic models (Diekmann et al., 2012). However, such conclusions are...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
KeAi Publishing
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9558769/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36267691 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.10.003 |
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author | Rousse, François Carlsson, Marcus Ögren, Magnus Wellander, Benjamin Kalischer |
author_facet | Rousse, François Carlsson, Marcus Ögren, Magnus Wellander, Benjamin Kalischer |
author_sort | Rousse, François |
collection | PubMed |
description | In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic models (Diekmann et al., 2012). However, such conclusions are derived under idealized assumptions such as the population size tending to infinity, and the individual degree of infectivity only depending on variations in the infectiousness period. In this paper we show that the same conclusions hold true in a finite population representing a medium size city, where the degree of infectivity is determined by the offspring distribution, which we try to make as realistic as possible for SARS-CoV-2. In particular, we consider distributions with fat tails, to incorporate the existence of super-spreaders. We also provide new theoretical results on convergence of stochastic models which allows to incorporate any offspring distribution with a finite variance. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9558769 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | KeAi Publishing |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-95587692022-10-16 The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Rousse, François Carlsson, Marcus Ögren, Magnus Wellander, Benjamin Kalischer Infect Dis Model Article In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic models (Diekmann et al., 2012). However, such conclusions are derived under idealized assumptions such as the population size tending to infinity, and the individual degree of infectivity only depending on variations in the infectiousness period. In this paper we show that the same conclusions hold true in a finite population representing a medium size city, where the degree of infectivity is determined by the offspring distribution, which we try to make as realistic as possible for SARS-CoV-2. In particular, we consider distributions with fat tails, to incorporate the existence of super-spreaders. We also provide new theoretical results on convergence of stochastic models which allows to incorporate any offspring distribution with a finite variance. KeAi Publishing 2022-10-13 /pmc/articles/PMC9558769/ /pubmed/36267691 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.10.003 Text en © 2022 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Rousse, François Carlsson, Marcus Ögren, Magnus Wellander, Benjamin Kalischer The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2 |
title | The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2 |
title_full | The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2 |
title_fullStr | The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2 |
title_full_unstemmed | The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2 |
title_short | The role of super-spreaders in modeling of SARS-CoV-2 |
title_sort | role of super-spreaders in modeling of sars-cov-2 |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9558769/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36267691 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.10.003 |
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