The Threshold Effect of Swine Epidemics on the Pig Supply in China

SIMPLE SUMMARY: China is the world’s largest pork producer and consumer, and pork is among the most important foods for people. Therefore, pig supply has a bearing on residents’ quality of life and the security of the pig industry. However, swine epidemics such as African swine fever have led to drastic changes in pig supply. This study analyzed the mechanism of the effect of swine epidemics on nonlinear shocks to pig supply, and monthly data on pig supply from January 2012 to June 2020 were applied to study the threshold effect of swine epidemics on pig stock and slaughter in China empirically. Our results contribute to devising relevant measures for the prevention and control of swine epidemics. ABSTRACT: The pig industry is the pillar industry of animal husbandry in China, and epidemics can lead to drastic changes in pig supply, affecting the healthy development of the pig industry and residents’ quality of life. This study analyzed the mechanism of the effect of swine epidemics on nonlinear shocks to pig supply, and monthly data on pig supply from January 2012 to June 2020 were applied to study the threshold effect of swine epidemics on pig stock and slaughter in China empirically, using the index of swine epidemics’ width (ISEW) as the threshold variable. The results of this study were as follows: (1) The influence of the ISEW over 7 months on pig stock in China was divided into two ranges, and the pig stock did not change significantly when the ISEW was less than 0.25. Swine epidemics had a significantly negative impact on the pig stock when the ISEW was larger than 0.25. (2) The influence of the ISEW over 8 months on pig slaughter was also divided into two ranges. When the ISEW was less than 0.33, epidemics had a positive and significant effect on pig slaughter, while epidemics had a marked negative impact on pig slaughter when the ISEW was greater than 0.33. Based on these conclusions, this study proposed relevant measures for the prevention and control of swine epidemics.