Clinical Validation of EndoPredict in Pre-Menopausal Women with ER-Positive, HER2-Negative Primary Breast Cancer

PURPOSE: The EndoPredict prognostic assay is validated to predict distant recurrence and response to chemotherapy primarily in post-menopausal women with estrogen receptor–positive (ER(+)), HER2(−) breast cancer. This study evaluated the performance of EndoPredict in pre-menopausal women. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Tumor samples from 385 pre-menopausal women with ER(+), HER2(−) primary breast cancer (pT1-3, pN0-1) who did not receive chemotherapy in addition to endocrine therapy were tested with EndoPredict to produce a 12-gene EP molecular score and an integrated EPclin score that includes pathologic tumor size and nodal status. Associations of molecular and EPclin scores with 10-year distant recurrence–free survival (DRFS) were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan–Meier analysis. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 9.7 years, both the EP molecular score and the molecular-clinicopathologic EPclin score were associated with increased risk of distant recurrence [HR, 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–1.50; P = 7.2 × 10(–6); HR, 3.58; 95% CI, 2.26–5.66; P = 9.8 × 10(–8), respectively]. Both scores remained significant after adjusting for clinical factors in multivariate analysis. Patients with low-risk EPclin scores (64.7%) had significantly improved DRFS compared with high-risk patients (HR, 4.61; 95% CI, 1.40–15.17; P = 4.2 × 10(–3)). At 10 years, patients with low-risk and high-risk EPclin scores had a DRFS of 97% (95% CI, 93%–99%) and 76% (95% CI, 67%–82%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The EPclin score is strongly associated with DRFS in pre-menopausal women who received adjuvant endocrine therapy alone. On the basis of these data, pre-menopausal women with EPclin low-risk breast cancer may be treated with endocrine therapy only and safely forgo adjuvant chemotherapy.