Development of a Prognostic Model of Overall Survival for Metastatic Hormone-Naïve Prostate Cancer in Japanese Men

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Treatment strategies have changed dramatically in recent years with the development of a variety of agents for metastatic hormone-naïve prostate cancer. There is a need to identify prognostic factors for the appropriate choice of treatment for patients with hormone-naïve prostate cancer in Japanese men. Among the prostate cancer patients receiving treatment at our institution from 2000 to 2019, 198 patients with bone or visceral metastases at the initial diagnosis were included in the study. We retrospectively examined these factors of the overall survival, and identified Gleason pattern 5 content, bone scan index ≥ 1.5, and lactate dehydrogenase evels ≥ 300 IU/L as prognostic factors. Using these three factors, we developed a new prognostic model for overall survival that can more objectively predict the prognosis of patients simply and objectively. ABSTRACT: Background: Treatment strategies have changed dramatically in recent years with the development of a variety of agents for metastatic hormone-naïve prostate cancer (mHNPC). There is a need to identify prognostic factors for the appropriate choice of treatment for patients with mHNPC, and we retrospectively examined these factors. Methods: Patients with mHNPC treated at our institution from 2000 to 2019 were included in this study. Overall survival (OS) was estimated retrospectively using the Kaplan–Meier method, and factors associated with OS were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. A prognostic model was then developed based on the factors identified. Follow-up was terminated on 24 October 2021. Results: The median follow-up duration was 44.2 months, whereas the median OS was 85.2 months, with 88 patients succumbing to their disease. Multivariate analysis identified Gleason pattern (GP) 5 content, bone scan index (BSI) ≥ 1.5, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels ≥ 300 IU/L as prognostic factors associated with OS. We also developed a prognostic model that classified patients with mHNPC as low risk with no factor, intermediate risk with one factor, and high risk with two or three factors. Conclusions: Three prognostic factors for OS were identified in patients with mHNPC, namely GP5 inclusion, BSI ≥ 1.5, and LDH ≥ 300. Using these three factors, we developed a new prognostic model for OS that can more objectively predict patient prognosis.