Cultivated Land Transfer, Management Scale, and Cultivated Land Green Utilization Efficiency in China: Based on Intermediary and Threshold Models

Cultivated land utilization around the world is accompanied by the cultivated land fragmentation, which is a significant agricultural feature of countries with economies in transition. Thereby, governments of the PRC have successively promulgated a series of relevant policies to promote the cultivated land transfer (CLT) and stimulate the transformation of cultivated land utilization to be both green and efficient. In the context of large-scale CLT and the implementation of a rural revitalization strategy for China, it is of great significance to explore the effect of CLT on cultivated land green utilization efficiency (CLGUE). In this work, 30 provinces of China were selected as the objects of investigation; the super-efficiency SBM model was used to evaluate CLGUE; the mediation effect model and threshold regression model were used to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the CLT’s influence on CLGUE. According to the results of this study, the following conclusions were drawn. First of all, the CLGUE in China as a whole showed an upward trend improvement from 2005 to 2019. Due to the different natural and economic conditions, the CLGUE trends showed significant spatial disparities at both the grain functional areas level and provincial level. Secondly, the CLT could promote CLGUE directly, and the mediation regression results demonstrated that CLT was able to enhance CLGUE indirectly through the mediator of cultivated land management scale. Thirdly, the threshold effect test confirmed the existence of a single threshold, indicating that when the level of CLT gradually crossed the threshold, the promotion effects of CLT on CLGUE would slow down. Lastly, the heterogeneity analysis indicated that the promotion effects of CLT on CLGUE in different geographical location areas and grain functional areas were positive, and that there were significant differences in regression coefficients.