Menopausal hormone therapy reduces the risk of fracture regardless of falls risk or baseline FRAX probability—results from the Women’s Health Initiative hormone therapy trials

SUMMARY: In a combined analysis of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 years, enrolled in the two Women’s Health Initiative hormone therapy trials, menopausal hormone therapy vs. placebo reduced the risk of fracture regardless of baseline FRAX fracture probability and falls history. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to determine if the anti-fracture efficacy of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) differed by baseline falls history or fracture risk probability as estimated by FRAX, in a combined analysis of the two Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trials. METHODS: A total of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 years were randomized to receive MHT (n = 12,739) or matching placebo (n = 12,650). At baseline, questionnaires were used to collect information on falls history, within the last 12 months, and clinical risk factors. FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was calculated without BMD. Incident clinical fractures were verified using medical records. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between treatment and fractures in (1) the whole cohort; (2) those with prior falls; and (3) those without prior falls. The effect of baseline FRAX probability on efficacy was investigated in the whole cohort. RESULTS: Over 4.3 ± 2.1 years (mean ± SD), MHT (vs. placebo) significantly reduced the risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72 [95% CI, 0.65–0.78]), MOF (HR 0.60 [95% CI, 0.53–0.69]), and hip fracture (0.66 [95% CI, 0.45–0.96]). Treatment was effective in reducing the risk of any clinical fracture, MOF, and hip fracture in women regardless of baseline FRAX MOF probability, with no evidence of an interaction between MHT and FRAX (p > 0.30). Similarly, there was no interaction (p > 0.30) between MHT and prior falls. CONCLUSION: In the combined WHI trials, compared to placebo, MHT reduces fracture risk regardless of FRAX probability and falls history in postmenopausal women. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00198-022-06483-y.