Accuracy of clinicians’ ability to predict the need for renal replacement therapy: a prospective multicenter study

PURPOSE: Identifying patients who will receive renal replacement therapy (RRT) during intensive care unit (ICU) stay is a major challenge for intensivists. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of physicians in predicting the need for RRT at ICU admission and at acute kidney injury (AKI) diagnosis. METHODS: Prospective, multicenter study including all adult patients hospitalized in 16 ICUs in October 2020. Physician prediction was estimated at ICU admission and at AKI diagnosis, according to a visual Likert scale. Discrimination, risk stratification and benefit of physician estimation were assessed. Mixed logistic regression models of variables associated with risk of receiving RRT, with and without physician estimation, were compared. RESULTS: Six hundred and forty-nine patients were included, 270 (41.6%) developed AKI and 77 (11.8%) received RRT. At ICU admission and at AKI diagnosis, a model including physician prediction, the experience of the physician, SOFA score, serum creatinine and diuresis to determine need for RRT performed better than a model without physician estimation with an area under the ROC curve of 0.90 [95% CI 0.86–0.94, p < 0.008 (at ICU admission)] and 0.89 [95% CI 0.83–0.93, p = 0.0014 (at AKI diagnosis)]. In multivariate analysis, physician prediction was strongly associated with the need for RRT, independently of creatinine levels, diuresis, SOFA score and the experience of the doctor who made the prediction. CONCLUSION: As physicians are able to stratify patients at high risk of RRT, physician judgement should be taken into account when designing new randomized studies focusing on RRT initiation during AKI. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-01066-w.