Evaluation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Fates and Related Environmental Risks for Main Cereals in China’s Croplands from 2004 to 2018

Assessment of the nitrogen (N) inputs and outputs in croplands would help effectively manage the distribution of N to improve crop growth and environmental sustainability. To better understand the N flow of the main cereal systems in China, soil N balance, N use efficiency (NUE), N losses and the potential environmental impacts of maize, wheat and rice cropping systems were estimated at the regional and national scales from 2004 to 2018. Nationally, the soil N balance (N inputs—N outputs) of maize, wheat, single rice and double rice decreased by 28.8%,13.3%, 30.8% and 34.1% from 2004–2008 to 2014–2018, equivalent to an average of 33.3 to 23.7 kg N ha(−1), 82.4 to 71.4 kg N ha(−1), 93.6 to 64.8 kg N ha(−1) and 51.8 to 34.1 kg N ha(−1), respectively. The highest soil N balance were observed in Southeast (SE) region for maize and double rice, North central (NC) region for wheat single rice and Northwest region for wheat, whereas Northeast (NE) region had the lowest N balance for all crops. The NUE increased from 49.8%, 41.2%, 49.7% and 53.7% in 2004–2008 to 54.8%, 45.9%, 55.5% and 56.5% in 2014–2018 for maize, wheat, single rice and double rice, respectively. The fertilizer N losses (i.e., N(2)O emission, NO emission, N(2) emission, NH(3) volatilization, N leaching and N runoff) were estimated as 43.7%, 38.3%, 40.2% and 36.6% of the total N inputs for maize, wheat, single rice and double rice, respectively in 2014–2018. Additionally, the highest global warming potential and acidification effects were found in NE and NC regions for maize, NC region for wheat, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River for single rice and SE region for double rice, respectively. The highest risk of water contamination by N leaching and surface runoff was observed in NC region for all crops mainly due to high N fertilizer input. Furthermore, the dynamics of N balance for all crops were closely tied with grain yields, except for single rice, the N balance of which was mainly correlated with N fertilizer input. Our results could help researchers and policy makers effectively establish optimized fertilization strategies and adjust the regional allocation of grain cropping areas in response to environmental risks and climate change caused by food crop cultivation in China.