Cargando…

Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients

Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externall...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Osmanodja, Bilgin, Stegbauer, Johannes, Kantauskaite, Marta, Rump, Lars Christian, Heinzel, Andreas, Reindl-Schwaighofer, Roman, Oberbauer, Rainer, Benotmane, Ilies, Caillard, Sophie, Masset, Christophe, Kerleau, Clarisse, Blancho, Gilles, Budde, Klemens, Grunow, Fritz, Mikhailov, Michael, Schrezenmeier, Eva, Ronicke, Simon
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9576943/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36268021
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.997343
_version_ 1784811643207680000
author Osmanodja, Bilgin
Stegbauer, Johannes
Kantauskaite, Marta
Rump, Lars Christian
Heinzel, Andreas
Reindl-Schwaighofer, Roman
Oberbauer, Rainer
Benotmane, Ilies
Caillard, Sophie
Masset, Christophe
Kerleau, Clarisse
Blancho, Gilles
Budde, Klemens
Grunow, Fritz
Mikhailov, Michael
Schrezenmeier, Eva
Ronicke, Simon
author_facet Osmanodja, Bilgin
Stegbauer, Johannes
Kantauskaite, Marta
Rump, Lars Christian
Heinzel, Andreas
Reindl-Schwaighofer, Roman
Oberbauer, Rainer
Benotmane, Ilies
Caillard, Sophie
Masset, Christophe
Kerleau, Clarisse
Blancho, Gilles
Budde, Klemens
Grunow, Fritz
Mikhailov, Michael
Schrezenmeier, Eva
Ronicke, Simon
author_sort Osmanodja, Bilgin
collection PubMed
description Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9576943
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-95769432022-10-19 Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients Osmanodja, Bilgin Stegbauer, Johannes Kantauskaite, Marta Rump, Lars Christian Heinzel, Andreas Reindl-Schwaighofer, Roman Oberbauer, Rainer Benotmane, Ilies Caillard, Sophie Masset, Christophe Kerleau, Clarisse Blancho, Gilles Budde, Klemens Grunow, Fritz Mikhailov, Michael Schrezenmeier, Eva Ronicke, Simon Front Immunol Immunology Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-10-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9576943/ /pubmed/36268021 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.997343 Text en Copyright © 2022 Osmanodja, Stegbauer, Kantauskaite, Rump, Heinzel, Reindl-Schwaighofer, Oberbauer, Benotmane, Caillard, Masset, Kerleau, Blancho, Budde, Grunow, Mikhailov, Schrezenmeier and Ronicke https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Immunology
Osmanodja, Bilgin
Stegbauer, Johannes
Kantauskaite, Marta
Rump, Lars Christian
Heinzel, Andreas
Reindl-Schwaighofer, Roman
Oberbauer, Rainer
Benotmane, Ilies
Caillard, Sophie
Masset, Christophe
Kerleau, Clarisse
Blancho, Gilles
Budde, Klemens
Grunow, Fritz
Mikhailov, Michael
Schrezenmeier, Eva
Ronicke, Simon
Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients
title Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients
title_full Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients
title_fullStr Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients
title_full_unstemmed Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients
title_short Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients
title_sort development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to sars-cov-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients
topic Immunology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9576943/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36268021
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.997343
work_keys_str_mv AT osmanodjabilgin developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT stegbauerjohannes developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT kantauskaitemarta developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT rumplarschristian developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT heinzelandreas developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT reindlschwaighoferroman developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT oberbauerrainer developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT benotmaneilies developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT caillardsophie developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT massetchristophe developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT kerleauclarisse developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT blanchogilles developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT buddeklemens developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT grunowfritz developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT mikhailovmichael developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT schrezenmeiereva developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients
AT ronickesimon developmentandvalidationofmultivariablepredictionmodelsofserologicalresponsetosarscov2vaccinationinkidneytransplantrecipients