Association of National Expansion of Insurance Coverage of Medically Tailored Meals With Estimated Hospitalizations and Health Care Expenditures in the US

IMPORTANCE: Medically tailored meals (MTMs) are associated with lower health care utilization among patients with complex diet-related diseases but are not a covered benefit in Medicare or Medicaid. The potential impact of extending insurance coverage for MTMs nationally remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To estimate 1- and 10-year potential changes in annual hospitalizations, potential changes in annual health care expenditures, and overall policy cost-effectiveness associated with national MTM coverage for US patients with diet-related disease and limited instrumental activities of daily living who have Medicaid, Medicare, or private insurance. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this economic evaluation, conducted from January 2021 to February 2022, a nationally representative sample from the 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was used to create a population-level cohort policy simulation model that estimated changes in annual hospitalizations and health care expenditures associated with coverage of MTMs. Participants were 6 309 998 US adults aged 18 years or older who had Medicare, Medicaid, or private payer insurance and at least 1 diet-sensitive condition and 1 limitation in instrumental activities of daily living. INTERVENTIONS: Ten nutritionally tailored MTMs per week for a mean of 8 months in each year of intervention. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcomes were total hospitalizations, program costs, health care expenditures, and net policy costs. One thousand Monte Carlo simulations for each of 10 years (2019-2028) jointly incorporated uncertainty in model inputs for effect sizes, hospitalizations, health care expenditures, and program costs. RESULTS: At the 2019 baseline, an estimated 6 309 998 US adults were eligible to receive MTMs. Mean (SD) age was 68.1 (16.6) years; most were female (63.4%), were non-Hispanic White (66.7%), and had Medicare and/or Medicaid (76.5%). The most common eligibility diagnoses were cardiovascular diseases (70.6%), diabetes (44.9%), and cancer (37.2%). If all eligible individuals received MTMs, an estimated 1 594 000 hospitalizations (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1 297 000-1 912 000) and $38.7 billion (95% UI, $24.9 billion to $53.9 billion) in health care expenditures could potentially be averted in 1 year. Program costs were $24.8 billion (95% UI, $23.1 billion to $26.8 billion), for an associated net savings of $13.6 billion (95% UI, $0.2 billion to $28.5 billion) from a health care perspective. In 2019 dollars, 10 years of the MTM intervention was anticipated to cost $298.7 billion (95% UI, $279.7 billion to $317.4 billion) and to potentially be associated with 18 257 000 averted hospitalizations (95% UI, 14 690 000-22 109 000) and reductions in health care expenditures of $484.5 billion (95% UI, $310.2 billion to $678.4 billion), for net savings of $185.1 billion (95% UI, $12.9 billion to $377.8 billion). Findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings suggest that national implementation of MTMs for patients with diet-sensitive conditions and activity limitations could potentially be associated with approximately 1.6 million averted hospitalizations and net cost savings of $13.6 billion annually. The results may inform US state, federal, and private-payer interest in expanding insurance coverage for MTMs among patients with diet-related chronic illness.