Establishment of a malignancy and benignancy prediction model of sub-centimeter pulmonary ground-glass nodules based on the inflammation-cancer transformation theory

BACKGROUND: In recent years, Chinese clinicians are frequently encountered by patients with multiple lung nodules and these intensity ground-glass nodules (GGNs) are usually small in size and some of them have no spicule sign. In addition, early lung cancer is diagnosed in large numbers of non-heavy smokers and individuals with no caner history. Obviously, the Mayo model is not applicable to these patients. The aim of the present study is to develop a new and more applicable model that can predict malignancy or benignancy of pulmonary GGNs based on the inflammation-cancer transformation theory. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Included in this study were patients who underwent surgical resection or lung puncture biopsy of GGNs in Shanghai 10th People’s Hospital between January 1, 2018 and May 31, 2021 with the inclusion criterion of the maximum diameter of GGN < 1.0 cm. All the included patients had their pulmonary GGNs diagnosed by postoperative pathology. The patient data were analyzed to establish a prediction model and the predictive value of the model was verified. RESULTS: Altogether 100 GGN patients who met the inclusion criteria were included for analysis. Based on the results of logistic stepwise regression analysis, a mathematical predication equation was established to calculate the malignancy probability as follows: Malignancy probability rate (p) = ex/(1 + ex); p > 0.5 was considered as malignant and p ≤ 0.5 as benign, where x = 0.9650 + [0.1791 × T helper (Th) cell] + [0.2921 × mixed GGN (mGGN)] + (0.4909 × vascular convergence sign) + (0.1058 × chronic inflammation). According to this prediction model, the positive prediction rate was 73.3% and the negative prediction rate was 100% versus the positive prediction rate of 0% for the Mayo model. CONCLUSION: By focusing on four major factors (chronic inflammation history, human Th cell, imaging vascular convergence sign and mGGNs), the present prediction model greatly improves the accuracy of malignancy or benignancy prediction of sub-centimeter pulmonary GGNs. This is a breakthrough innovation in this field.