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Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases
Following a pandemic disease outbreak, people travel to areas with low infection risk, but at the same time the epidemiological situation worsens as mobility flows to those areas increase. These feedback effects from epidemiological conditions to inflows and from inflows to subsequent infections are...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V.
2023
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9581521/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36281432 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106083 |
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author | Boto-García, David |
author_facet | Boto-García, David |
author_sort | Boto-García, David |
collection | PubMed |
description | Following a pandemic disease outbreak, people travel to areas with low infection risk, but at the same time the epidemiological situation worsens as mobility flows to those areas increase. These feedback effects from epidemiological conditions to inflows and from inflows to subsequent infections are underexplored to date. This study investigates the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases in a context of unrestricted mobility without COVID-19 vaccines. To this end, we merge data on COVID-19 cases in Spain during the summer of 2020 at the province level with mobility records based on mobile position tracking. Using a control function approach, we find that a 1% increase in arrivals translates into a 3.5% increase in cases in the following week and 5.6% ten days later. A simulation exercise shows the cases would have dropped by around 64% if the Second State of Alarm had been implemented earlier. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9581521 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-95815212022-10-20 Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases Boto-García, David Econ Model Article Following a pandemic disease outbreak, people travel to areas with low infection risk, but at the same time the epidemiological situation worsens as mobility flows to those areas increase. These feedback effects from epidemiological conditions to inflows and from inflows to subsequent infections are underexplored to date. This study investigates the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases in a context of unrestricted mobility without COVID-19 vaccines. To this end, we merge data on COVID-19 cases in Spain during the summer of 2020 at the province level with mobility records based on mobile position tracking. Using a control function approach, we find that a 1% increase in arrivals translates into a 3.5% increase in cases in the following week and 5.6% ten days later. A simulation exercise shows the cases would have dropped by around 64% if the Second State of Alarm had been implemented earlier. The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2023-01 2022-10-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9581521/ /pubmed/36281432 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106083 Text en © 2022 The Author Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Boto-García, David Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases |
title | Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases |
title_full | Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases |
title_fullStr | Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases |
title_full_unstemmed | Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases |
title_short | Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases |
title_sort | investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and covid-19 cases |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9581521/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36281432 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106083 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT botogarciadavid investigatingthetwowayrelationshipbetweenmobilityflowsandcovid19cases |