Re-emergence of arbovirus diseases in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The role of simultaneous viral circulation between 2014 and 2019

The burden of arbovirus diseases in Brazil has increased within the past decade due to the emergence of chikungunya and Zika and endemic circulation of all four dengue serotypes. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may alter conditions to favor vector-host transmission and allow for cyclic re-emergence of disease. We sought to determine the impact of climate conditions on arbovirus co-circulation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We assessed the spatial and temporal distributions of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika cases from Brazil's national notifiable disease information system (SINAN) and created autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) to predict arbovirus incidence accounting for the lagged effect of temperature and rainfall. Each year, we estimate that the combined arboviruses were associated with an average of 8429 to 10,047 lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). After controlling for temperature and precipitation, our model predicted a three cycle pattern where large arbovirus outbreaks appear to be primed by a smaller scale surge and followed by a lull of cases. These dynamic arbovirus patterns in Rio de Janeiro support a mechanism of susceptibility enhancement until the theoretical threshold of population immunity allows for temporary cross protection among certain arboviruses. This suspected synergy presents a major public health challenge due to overlapping locations and seasonality of arbovirus diseases, which may perpetuate disease burden and overwhelm the health system.