Conditional survival of uveal melanoma using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) classification (Simplified Version) in 1001 cases

PURPOSE: To understand conditional prognostic value of the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) for uveal melanoma metastasis based on event-free survival at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. METHODS: A retrospective study of eyes with uveal melanoma categorized according to TCGA and studied for nonconditional and conditional risks for metastasis at 5 and 10 years. RESULTS: Of 1001 eyes with uveal melanoma, the nonconditional (standard, at presentation) 5-year/10-year metastatic rate was 18%/25%. The conditional 5-year/10-year metastatic rate (for those without metastasis at 2 years) revealed 10%/18% and the conditional 10-year metastatic rate (for those without metastasis at 5 years) revealed 9%. The TCGA categories included Group A (n = 486, 49%), B (n = 141, 14%), C (n = 260, 26%), and D (n = 114, 11%). The non-conditional 5-year/10-year metastatic rate revealed Group A (4%/6%), Group B (12%/20%), Group C (23%/49%), and Group D (60%/68%). The conditional 5-year/10-year metastatic rate (for those without metastasis at 2 years) revealed Group A (2%/5%), Group B (8%/18%), Group C (21%/40%), and Group D (38%/50%). The conditional 10-year metastatic rate (for those without metastasis at 5 years) revealed Group A (2%), Group B (10%), Group C (33%), and Group D (20%). The peak incidence of metastasis for Groups A and B occurred during years 5–6, C during years 4–6, and D during years 1–2. CONCLUSION: Survival outcomes for uveal melanoma as non-conditional (at presentation) and conditional (event-free survival during follow-up) reveal reduction in metastatic rate over time. For those with 5-year metastasis-free survival, the 10-year conditional risk for metastasis was 9%.