Development and validation of lymph node ratio-based nomograms for primary duodenal adenocarcinoma after surgery

BACKGROUND: The prediction models for primary duodenal adenocarcinoma (PDA) are deficient. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of the lymph node ratio (LNR) in PDA patients and to establish and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for PDAs after surgical resection. METHODS: We extracted the demographics and clinicopathological information of PDA patients between 2004 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. After screening cases, we randomly divided the enrolled patients into training and validation groups. X-tile software was used to obtain the best cut-off value for the LNR. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used in the training group to screen out significant variables to develop nomograms. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, four risk groups were created based on quartiles of the model scores. RESULTS: A total of 978 patients were included in this study. The best cut-off value for the LNR was 0.47. LNR was a negative predictive factor for both OS and CSS. Age, sex, grade, chemotherapy and LNR were used to construct the OS nomogram, while age, grade, chemotherapy, the number of lymph nodes removed and LNR were incorporated into the CSS nomogram. The C-index, calibration curves and AUC of the training and validation sets revealed their good predictability. DCA showed that the predictive value of the nomograms was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system (8th edition). In addition, risk stratification demonstrated that patients with higher risk correlated with poor survival. CONCLUSIONS: The LNR was an adverse prognostic determinant for PDAs. The nomograms provided an accurate and applicable tool to evaluate the prognosis of PDA patients after surgery.