Predictive values of the SOFA score and procalcitonin for septic shock after percutaneous nephrolithotomy

To investigate the value of combination of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and procalcitonin (PCT) for prediction of septic shock after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). A total of 1328 patients receiving PCNL for renal calculi were allocated into control group (without septic shock) and septic shock group, and related data were retrospectively collected. Univariate analysis was firstly performed, and the variables with two sided P < 0.10 were then included in logistic regression analysis to determine independent risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized to evaluate the predictive values. Area under curve (AUC) was compared using Z test. Postoperative septic shock was developed in 61 patients (4.6%) and not developed in 1267 patients (95.3%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that SOFA score (OR: 1.316, 95% CI 1.125–1.922), PCT (OR: 1.205, 95% CI 1.071–1.696) and operative time (OR: 1.108, 95% CI 1.032–1.441) were independent risk factors for septic shock with adjustment for sex, history of urolithiasis surgery, positive history of urine culture and history of PCNL. The ROC curves demonstrated that the AUCs of SOFA score and PCT for predicting septic shock after PCNL were 0.896 (95% CI 0.866–0.927) and 0.792 (95% CI 0.744–0.839), respectively. The AUC of their combination was 0.971 (95% CI 0.949–0.990), which was higher than those of individual predictions (vs 0.896, Z = 4.086, P < 0.001; vs 0.792, Z = 6.983, P < 0.001). Both the SOFA score and PCT could be applied in predicting septic shock after PCNL, and their combination could further elevate the diagnostic ability. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00240-022-01366-7.