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Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China

This research aims to investigate the difference of the travel behaviours of the elderly in different urban areas. On the basis of the results of cluster analysis, the nested logit (NL) model is adopted to investigate the travel decision of the elderly in central urban areas and non-central urban ar...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Feng, Xuesong, Tao, Zhibin, Zhang, Lukai, Shi, Ruolin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9589753/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36313961
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02692-x
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author Feng, Xuesong
Tao, Zhibin
Zhang, Lukai
Shi, Ruolin
author_facet Feng, Xuesong
Tao, Zhibin
Zhang, Lukai
Shi, Ruolin
author_sort Feng, Xuesong
collection PubMed
description This research aims to investigate the difference of the travel behaviours of the elderly in different urban areas. On the basis of the results of cluster analysis, the nested logit (NL) model is adopted to investigate the travel decision of the elderly in central urban areas and non-central urban areas. Moreover, it is used to forecast the change of their travel behaviours by implementing the policies of age-friendly society. The results show that the elderly in central urban areas are inclined to decide travel modes in advanced of determining trip chains, while the trip chains are first determined in non-central urban areas. For the central urban areas, the policies mainly affect the choice of travel modes of the elderly, rather than the choice of trip chains. However, for the non-central urban area, the policies simultaneously influence the choice of travel mode and trip chains of the elderly. Based on the results of the forecast, some measures are proposed in this study to meet different travel requirements of the elderly in central urban areas and non-central urban areas.
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spelling pubmed-95897532022-10-24 Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China Feng, Xuesong Tao, Zhibin Zhang, Lukai Shi, Ruolin Environ Dev Sustain Article This research aims to investigate the difference of the travel behaviours of the elderly in different urban areas. On the basis of the results of cluster analysis, the nested logit (NL) model is adopted to investigate the travel decision of the elderly in central urban areas and non-central urban areas. Moreover, it is used to forecast the change of their travel behaviours by implementing the policies of age-friendly society. The results show that the elderly in central urban areas are inclined to decide travel modes in advanced of determining trip chains, while the trip chains are first determined in non-central urban areas. For the central urban areas, the policies mainly affect the choice of travel modes of the elderly, rather than the choice of trip chains. However, for the non-central urban area, the policies simultaneously influence the choice of travel mode and trip chains of the elderly. Based on the results of the forecast, some measures are proposed in this study to meet different travel requirements of the elderly in central urban areas and non-central urban areas. Springer Netherlands 2022-10-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9589753/ /pubmed/36313961 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02692-x Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Feng, Xuesong
Tao, Zhibin
Zhang, Lukai
Shi, Ruolin
Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China
title Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China
title_full Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China
title_fullStr Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China
title_full_unstemmed Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China
title_short Addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in China
title_sort addressing challenges of an ageing population by rationally forecasting travel behaviours of the elderly: a case study in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9589753/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36313961
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02692-x
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