Prospective prediction of alcohol consumption among a Tunisian sample of adolescents

BACKGROUND: During adolescence, alcohol consumption represents a new experience with the advantage of facilitating the integration of a peer group. The global overall prevalence of this risk behavior among the 15-19 years old was over 25% in 2018. However, this prevalence varies between countries. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and the predictors of alcohol consumption among high school students in Sousse, Tunisia between 2017/2018 and 2018/2019. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal study was conducted in four high schools in the governorate of Sousse during the 2018-2019 school year. Pre-trained medical doctors used an anonymous self-administered questionnaire to collect data about socio-demographic and educational features, alcohol consumption, tobacco use, illicit substances use and emotional disorders. RESULTS: Participants accounted for 404. Their average age was 16.4 (±1.1) years. Females represented 68%. The prevalence of alcohol consumption in 2017/2018 was 5.9% while the cumulative incidence during the 2018/2019 school year was 3.5%. Among males, this incidence was of 11.9%. Among females, it was of 3% (p = 0.020). Illicit substance use among friends was the main predictor of becoming alcohol consumer with an adjusted odds ratio of 6.4 (95% CI: 1.9-21.3) on the other hand, having an anxiety trouble predicted less this risk behavior (adjusted odds ratio =0.2 95% CI: 0.1-0.8). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption is becoming more and more common among the adolescents of Sousse especially among males. The current national strategy against substances use in schools should be reinforced. Implementation of a social skills training among adolescents to improve assertiveness is essential. KEY MESSAGES: • Alcohol consumption has an upword trend among the adolescents of Sousse. • The current prevention programs targetting adolescents in Tunisia should be revised and integrate a comprehensive and multisectoral program.