Establishment and evaluation of a prediction model for acute gastrointestinal injury in patients with prolonged disorder of consciousness

OBJECTIVE: To establish a prediction model for acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) in patients with prolonged disorder of consciousness (pDOC) and to evaluate and apply the prediction model. METHODS: The clinical data of 165 patients with pDOC admitted to the hyperbaric oxygen department from January 2021 to December 2021 were retrospectively reviewed, and the patients were divided into an AGI group (n = 91) and an N-AGI group (n = 74) according to whether AGI occurred. A prediction model was built by fitting multiple independent influencing factors through logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of the model, the Hosmer–Lemeshow (H–L) test was used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the model, and the ROC curve and calibration curve were drawn to evaluate the predictive performance. A nomogram was plotted to visualize the prediction model. RESULTS: According to the multivariate logistic regression analysis results, the prediction model was finally constructed with the CRS-R score, DAO, PCT, ALB, and I-FABP, and a nomogram was generated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction model was 0.931, the sensitivity was 83.5%, and the specificity was 93.2%. The data were divided into 5 groups for the H–L test (χ(2) = 2.54, P = 0.468 > 0.05) and into 10 groups for the H–L test (χ(2) = 9.98, P = 0.267 > 0.05). A calibration curve was drawn based on the test results, indicating that the prediction model has a good goodness-of-fit and good prediction stability. CONCLUSION: The prediction model for AGI in pDOC patients constructed in this study can be used in clinical practice and is helpful to predict the occurrence of AGI in pDOC patients.