Immune-related histologic phenotype in pretreatment tumour biopsy predicts the efficacy of neoadjuvant anti-PD-1 treatment in squamous lung cancer

BACKGROUND: Although neoadjuvant anti-PD-1 immunotherapies have shown good efficacy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, there is still a lack of effective predictive markers. We aimed to develop a pretreatment histologic scoring system to predict the efficacy of neoadjuvant immunotherapy. METHODS: One hundred forty NSCLC cases were evaluated in this study. Initially, surgical specimens from 31 squamous cell lung cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant anti-PD-1 therapy and their eligible paired pretreatment biopsies were used for pathologic evaluation and developing the pretreatment scoring system, immune-related histologic phenotype assessment criteria (irHPC). Three trained pathologists independently scored the haematoxylin-eosin (HE) slides of the pretreatment tumour biopsies according to irHPC. The follow-up was from 07 March 2018 to 31 December 2021, mainly focusing on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Second, 109 biopsies of lung squamous cell carcinoma were evaluated to explore the relationship between eosinophils and PD-L1 expression. RESULTS: Superior 2-year DFS rates and 2-year OS rates were observed in patients who achieved major pathologic response (MPR) (MPR vs. non-MPR: 92.9% vs. 78.6%; 100.0% vs. 93.3%). Whether necrosis was included in the calculation of the per cent of residual viable tumour (%RVT) or not had almost no effect on the consistency of pathologic assessment and the histological response grouping. The interpathologist variability in assessing %RVT with immune-activated phenotype was not statistically significant (P = 0.480). Four immune-related features of pretreatment biopsies were included for calculating the predictive score. The trained pathologist accurately predicted most cases according to irHPC. For interobserver reproducibility using “2 points” as the cutoff, the overall per cent agreement was 77.8%. The reliability between pathologists for a binary tumour evaluation showed “moderate” agreement (κ = 0.54). Patients with scores ≥ 2 points tended to have better 2-year DFS rates and 2-year OS rates than those with scores < 2 points (85.7% vs. 71.4%; 100.0% vs. 87.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The irHPC scoring system reflecting the preexisting immune response could be used to predict pathologic response to neoadjuvant immunotherapy, possibly further predicting the long-term prognosis, but larger trials are needed for verification. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02609-5.