Cargando…

The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission

It is well established that COVID-19 incidence data follows some power law growth pattern. Therefore, it is natural to believe that the COVID-19 transmission process follows some power law. However, we found no existing model on COVID-19 with a power law effect only in the disease transmission proce...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Sk, Tahajuddin, Biswas, Santosh, Sardar, Tridip
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9595307/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36312209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112790
_version_ 1784815618997878784
author Sk, Tahajuddin
Biswas, Santosh
Sardar, Tridip
author_facet Sk, Tahajuddin
Biswas, Santosh
Sardar, Tridip
author_sort Sk, Tahajuddin
collection PubMed
description It is well established that COVID-19 incidence data follows some power law growth pattern. Therefore, it is natural to believe that the COVID-19 transmission process follows some power law. However, we found no existing model on COVID-19 with a power law effect only in the disease transmission process. Inevitably, it is not clear how this power law effect in disease transmission can influence multiple COVID-19 waves in a location. In this context, we developed a completely new COVID-19 model where a force of infection function in disease transmission follows some power law. Furthermore, different realistic epidemiological scenarios like imperfect social distancing among home-quarantined individuals, disease awareness, vaccination, treatment, and possible reinfection of the recovered population are also considered in the model. Applying some recent techniques, we showed that the proposed system converted to a COVID-19 model with fractional order disease transmission, where order of the fractional derivative ([Formula: see text]) in the force of infection function represents the memory effect in disease transmission. We studied some mathematical properties of this newly formulated model and determined the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]). Furthermore, we estimated several epidemiological parameters of the newly developed fractional order model (including memory index [Formula: see text]) by fitting the model to the daily reported COVID-19 cases from Russia, South Africa, UK, and USA, respectively, for the time period March 01, 2020, till December 01, 2021. Variance-based Sobol’s global sensitivity analysis technique is used to measure the effect of different important model parameters (including [Formula: see text]) on the number of COVID-19 waves in a location ([Formula: see text]). Our findings suggest that [Formula: see text] along with the average transmission rate of the undetected (symptomatic and asymptomatic) cases in the community ([Formula: see text]) are mainly influencing multiple COVID-19 waves in those four locations. Numerically, we identified the regions in the parameter space of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] for which multiple COVID-19 waves are occurring in those four locations. Furthermore, our findings suggested that increasing memory effect in disease transmission ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] 0) may decrease the possibility of multiple COVID-19 waves and as well as reduce the severity of disease transmission in those four locations. Based on all the results, we try to identify a few non-pharmaceutical control strategies that may reduce the risk of further SARS-CoV-2 waves in Russia, South Africa, UK, and USA, respectively.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9595307
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier Ltd.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-95953072022-10-25 The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission Sk, Tahajuddin Biswas, Santosh Sardar, Tridip Chaos Solitons Fractals Article It is well established that COVID-19 incidence data follows some power law growth pattern. Therefore, it is natural to believe that the COVID-19 transmission process follows some power law. However, we found no existing model on COVID-19 with a power law effect only in the disease transmission process. Inevitably, it is not clear how this power law effect in disease transmission can influence multiple COVID-19 waves in a location. In this context, we developed a completely new COVID-19 model where a force of infection function in disease transmission follows some power law. Furthermore, different realistic epidemiological scenarios like imperfect social distancing among home-quarantined individuals, disease awareness, vaccination, treatment, and possible reinfection of the recovered population are also considered in the model. Applying some recent techniques, we showed that the proposed system converted to a COVID-19 model with fractional order disease transmission, where order of the fractional derivative ([Formula: see text]) in the force of infection function represents the memory effect in disease transmission. We studied some mathematical properties of this newly formulated model and determined the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]). Furthermore, we estimated several epidemiological parameters of the newly developed fractional order model (including memory index [Formula: see text]) by fitting the model to the daily reported COVID-19 cases from Russia, South Africa, UK, and USA, respectively, for the time period March 01, 2020, till December 01, 2021. Variance-based Sobol’s global sensitivity analysis technique is used to measure the effect of different important model parameters (including [Formula: see text]) on the number of COVID-19 waves in a location ([Formula: see text]). Our findings suggest that [Formula: see text] along with the average transmission rate of the undetected (symptomatic and asymptomatic) cases in the community ([Formula: see text]) are mainly influencing multiple COVID-19 waves in those four locations. Numerically, we identified the regions in the parameter space of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] for which multiple COVID-19 waves are occurring in those four locations. Furthermore, our findings suggested that increasing memory effect in disease transmission ([Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] 0) may decrease the possibility of multiple COVID-19 waves and as well as reduce the severity of disease transmission in those four locations. Based on all the results, we try to identify a few non-pharmaceutical control strategies that may reduce the risk of further SARS-CoV-2 waves in Russia, South Africa, UK, and USA, respectively. Elsevier Ltd. 2022-12 2022-10-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9595307/ /pubmed/36312209 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112790 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Sk, Tahajuddin
Biswas, Santosh
Sardar, Tridip
The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission
title The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission
title_full The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission
title_fullStr The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission
title_full_unstemmed The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission
title_short The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission
title_sort impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the sars-cov-2 transmission
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9595307/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36312209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112790
work_keys_str_mv AT sktahajuddin theimpactofapowerlawinducedmemoryeffectonthesarscov2transmission
AT biswassantosh theimpactofapowerlawinducedmemoryeffectonthesarscov2transmission
AT sardartridip theimpactofapowerlawinducedmemoryeffectonthesarscov2transmission
AT sktahajuddin impactofapowerlawinducedmemoryeffectonthesarscov2transmission
AT biswassantosh impactofapowerlawinducedmemoryeffectonthesarscov2transmission
AT sardartridip impactofapowerlawinducedmemoryeffectonthesarscov2transmission