STENSL: Microbial Source Tracking with ENvironment SeLection

Microbial source tracking analysis has emerged as a widespread technique for characterizing the properties of complex microbial communities. However, this analysis is currently limited to source environments sampled in a specific study. In order to expand the scope beyond one single study and allow the exploration of source environments using large databases and repositories, such as the Earth Microbiome Project, a source selection procedure is required. Such a procedure will allow differentiating between contributing environments and nuisance ones when the number of potential sources considered is high. Here, we introduce STENSL (microbial Source Tracking with ENvironment SeLection), a machine learning method that extends common microbial source tracking analysis by performing an unsupervised source selection and enabling sparse identification of latent source environments. By incorporating sparsity into the estimation of potential source environments, STENSL improves the accuracy of true source contribution, while significantly reducing the noise introduced by noncontributing ones. We therefore anticipate that source selection will augment microbial source tracking analyses, enabling exploration of multiple source environments from publicly available repositories while maintaining high accuracy of the statistical inference. IMPORTANCE Microbial source tracking is a powerful tool to characterize the properties of complex microbial communities. However, this analysis is currently limited to source environments sampled in a specific study. In many applications there is a clear need to consider source selection over a large array of microbial environments, external to the study. To this end, we developed STENSL (microbial Source Tracking with ENvironment SeLection), an expectation-maximization algorithm with sparsity that enables the identification of contributing sources among a large set of potential microbial environments. With the unprecedented expansion of microbiome data repositories such as the Earth Microbiome Project, recording over 200,000 samples from more than 50 types of categorized environments, STENSL takes the first steps in performing automated source exploration and selection. STENSL is significantly more accurate in identifying the contributing sources as well as the unknown source, even when considering hundreds of potential source environments, settings in which state-of-the-art microbial source tracking methods add considerable error.