Cargando…
Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis
BACKGROUND: Decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) is a stage in the progression of liver cirrhosis and has a high mortality. AIM: To establish and validate a novel and simple-to-use predictive nomogram for evaluating the prognosis of DLC patients. METHODS: A total of 493 patients with confirmed DLC we...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Baishideng Publishing Group Inc
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9602236/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36312496 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v10.i29.10467 |
_version_ | 1784817264954966016 |
---|---|
author | Zhang, Wang Zhang, Yue Liu, Qi Nie, Yuan Zhu, Xuan |
author_facet | Zhang, Wang Zhang, Yue Liu, Qi Nie, Yuan Zhu, Xuan |
author_sort | Zhang, Wang |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) is a stage in the progression of liver cirrhosis and has a high mortality. AIM: To establish and validate a novel and simple-to-use predictive nomogram for evaluating the prognosis of DLC patients. METHODS: A total of 493 patients with confirmed DLC were enrolled from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China) between December 2013 and August 2019. The patients were divided into two groups: a derivation group (n = 329) and a validation group (n = 164). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to assess prognostic factors. The performance of the nomogram was determined by its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Age, mechanical ventilation application, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, mean arterial blood pressure, and arterial oxygen partial pressure/inhaled oxygen concentration were used to construct the model. The C-indexes of the nomogram in the derivation and validation groups were 0.780 (95%CI: 0.670-0.889) and 0.792 (95%CI: 0.698-0.886), respectively. The calibration curve exhibited good consistency with the actual observation curve in both sets. In addition, decision curve analysis indicated that our nomogram was useful in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: A simple-to-use novel nomogram based on a large Asian cohort was established and validated and exhibited improved performance compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh and MELD scores. For patients with DLC, the proposed nomogram may be helpful in guiding clinicians in treatment allocation and may assist in prognosis prediction. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9602236 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Baishideng Publishing Group Inc |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96022362022-10-27 Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis Zhang, Wang Zhang, Yue Liu, Qi Nie, Yuan Zhu, Xuan World J Clin Cases Retrospective Study BACKGROUND: Decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) is a stage in the progression of liver cirrhosis and has a high mortality. AIM: To establish and validate a novel and simple-to-use predictive nomogram for evaluating the prognosis of DLC patients. METHODS: A total of 493 patients with confirmed DLC were enrolled from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China) between December 2013 and August 2019. The patients were divided into two groups: a derivation group (n = 329) and a validation group (n = 164). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to assess prognostic factors. The performance of the nomogram was determined by its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Age, mechanical ventilation application, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, mean arterial blood pressure, and arterial oxygen partial pressure/inhaled oxygen concentration were used to construct the model. The C-indexes of the nomogram in the derivation and validation groups were 0.780 (95%CI: 0.670-0.889) and 0.792 (95%CI: 0.698-0.886), respectively. The calibration curve exhibited good consistency with the actual observation curve in both sets. In addition, decision curve analysis indicated that our nomogram was useful in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: A simple-to-use novel nomogram based on a large Asian cohort was established and validated and exhibited improved performance compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh and MELD scores. For patients with DLC, the proposed nomogram may be helpful in guiding clinicians in treatment allocation and may assist in prognosis prediction. Baishideng Publishing Group Inc 2022-10-16 2022-10-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9602236/ /pubmed/36312496 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v10.i29.10467 Text en ©The Author(s) 2022. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Retrospective Study Zhang, Wang Zhang, Yue Liu, Qi Nie, Yuan Zhu, Xuan Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis |
title | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis |
title_full | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis |
title_fullStr | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis |
title_short | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis |
title_sort | development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for decompensated liver cirrhosis |
topic | Retrospective Study |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9602236/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36312496 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v10.i29.10467 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT zhangwang developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogramfordecompensatedlivercirrhosis AT zhangyue developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogramfordecompensatedlivercirrhosis AT liuqi developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogramfordecompensatedlivercirrhosis AT nieyuan developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogramfordecompensatedlivercirrhosis AT zhuxuan developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogramfordecompensatedlivercirrhosis |