Can Green Innovation Improve Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity? An Empirical Analysis from China

Green innovation has become an important driving force for China’s economic transformation and development. This paper selects the 2010–2020 provincial-level regions in China as samples, and adopts a multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method to comprehensively, objectively and scientifically evaluate the environmental carrying capacity of air pollution in two dimensions: natural resource endowment and human activity impact, and also measures and calculates the green innovation in each province, city and autonomous region to explore the specific impact of green innovation on environmental carrying capacity and its spatial spillover effect; it also explores the heterogeneous effects of green innovation on environmental carrying capacity under different pollution environments. The conclusions show that: (1) Green innovation has a positive impact on environmental carrying capacity. (2) There is a spatial spillover effect of green innovation on environmental carrying capacity. In other words, in areas with higher PM2.5 concentration, that is, lower environmental quality, green innovation has a weaker ability to improve environmental carrying capacity; in areas with lower PM2.5 concentration, that is higher environmental quality, green innovation has a stronger ability to improve environmental carrying capacity. (3) In the process of green innovation affecting environmental carrying capacity, PM2.5 plays the part of a mediating effect, indicating that green innovation is an intermediate transmission mechanism affecting environmental carrying capacity, and the results show that the absolute value of the short-term indirect effect is greater than the absolute value of the short-term direct effect, and the long-term direct effect is greater than the long-term indirect effect.