Geographical Distribution of Periodontitis Risk and Prevalence in Portugal Using Multivariable Data Mining and Modeling

We aimed to estimate the geographical distribution of periodontitis prevalence and risk based on sociodemographic and economic data. This study used sociodemographic, economic, and health services data obtained from a regional survey and governmental open data sources. Information was gathered for all 308 Portuguese municipalities and compiled in a large set of 52 variables. We employed principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (FA) and clustering techniques to model the Portuguese nationwide geographical distribution of the disease. Estimation of periodontitis risk for each municipality was achieved by calculation of a normalized score, obtained as an adjusted linear combination of six independent factors that were extracted through PCA/FA. The municipalities were also classified according to a quartile-based risk grade in each cluster. Additionally, linear regression was used to estimate the periodontitis prevalence within the peri-urban municipality clusters, accounting for 30.5% of the Portuguese population. A total of nine municipality clusters were obtained with the following characteristics: mainly rural/low populated, including small villages (one), partly rural, including small cities (two), mainly urban/peri-urban, including medium-sized to large cities (4), and urban/large cities (2). Within the clusters, a higher periodontitis risk was identified for municipalities with lower income, older populations. The estimated periodontitis prevalence for the 18 municipalities included in the four peri-urban clusters ranged from 41.2% to 69.0%. Periodontitis prevalence estimates range from 41.2% to 69.0% for the municipalities characterized as peri-urban and mainly urban, most of them located in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, the tenth largest in Europe.