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Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)

Background: The increased rates of postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer (OCC) require the use of risk-stratification scores. The study purpose is to external validate the surgical risk calculator (SRC) and the AFC/OCC score and to create a score for risk strat...

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Autores principales: Mihailov, Raul, Firescu, Dorel, Constantin, Georgiana Bianca, Mihailov, Oana Mariana, Hoara, Petre, Birla, Rodica, Patrascu, Traian, Panaitescu, Eugenia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9603747/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36294094
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013513
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author Mihailov, Raul
Firescu, Dorel
Constantin, Georgiana Bianca
Mihailov, Oana Mariana
Hoara, Petre
Birla, Rodica
Patrascu, Traian
Panaitescu, Eugenia
author_facet Mihailov, Raul
Firescu, Dorel
Constantin, Georgiana Bianca
Mihailov, Oana Mariana
Hoara, Petre
Birla, Rodica
Patrascu, Traian
Panaitescu, Eugenia
author_sort Mihailov, Raul
collection PubMed
description Background: The increased rates of postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer (OCC) require the use of risk-stratification scores. The study purpose is to external validate the surgical risk calculator (SRC) and the AFC/OCC score and to create a score for risk stratification. Patients and methods: Overall, 435 patients with emergency surgery for OCC were included in this retrospective study. We used statistical methods suitable for the aimed purpose. Results: Postoperative mortality was 11.72%. SRC performance: strong discrimination (AUC = 0.864) and excellent calibration (11.80% predicted versus 11.72% observed); AFC/OCC score performance: adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.787) and underestimated mortality (6.93% predicted versus 11.72% observed). We identified nine predictors of postoperative mortality: age > 70 years, CHF, ECOG > 2, sepsis, obesity or cachexia, creatinine (aN) or platelets (aN), and proximal tumors (AUC = 0.947). Based on the score, we obtained four risk groups of mortality rate: low risk (0.7%)—0–2 factors, medium risk (12.5%)—3 factors, high risk (40.0%)—4 factors, very high risk (84.4%)—5–6 factors. Conclusions: The two scores were externally validated. The easy identification of predictors and its performance recommend the mortality score of the Clinic County Emergency Hospital of Galați/OCC for clinical use.
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spelling pubmed-96037472022-10-27 Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score) Mihailov, Raul Firescu, Dorel Constantin, Georgiana Bianca Mihailov, Oana Mariana Hoara, Petre Birla, Rodica Patrascu, Traian Panaitescu, Eugenia Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Background: The increased rates of postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer (OCC) require the use of risk-stratification scores. The study purpose is to external validate the surgical risk calculator (SRC) and the AFC/OCC score and to create a score for risk stratification. Patients and methods: Overall, 435 patients with emergency surgery for OCC were included in this retrospective study. We used statistical methods suitable for the aimed purpose. Results: Postoperative mortality was 11.72%. SRC performance: strong discrimination (AUC = 0.864) and excellent calibration (11.80% predicted versus 11.72% observed); AFC/OCC score performance: adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.787) and underestimated mortality (6.93% predicted versus 11.72% observed). We identified nine predictors of postoperative mortality: age > 70 years, CHF, ECOG > 2, sepsis, obesity or cachexia, creatinine (aN) or platelets (aN), and proximal tumors (AUC = 0.947). Based on the score, we obtained four risk groups of mortality rate: low risk (0.7%)—0–2 factors, medium risk (12.5%)—3 factors, high risk (40.0%)—4 factors, very high risk (84.4%)—5–6 factors. Conclusions: The two scores were externally validated. The easy identification of predictors and its performance recommend the mortality score of the Clinic County Emergency Hospital of Galați/OCC for clinical use. MDPI 2022-10-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9603747/ /pubmed/36294094 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013513 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Mihailov, Raul
Firescu, Dorel
Constantin, Georgiana Bianca
Mihailov, Oana Mariana
Hoara, Petre
Birla, Rodica
Patrascu, Traian
Panaitescu, Eugenia
Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)
title Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)
title_full Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)
title_fullStr Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)
title_full_unstemmed Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)
title_short Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)
title_sort mortality risk stratification in emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer—external validation of international scores, american college of surgeons national surgical quality improvement program surgical risk calculator (src), and the dedicated score of french surgical association (afc/occ score)
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9603747/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36294094
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013513
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