Addressing a Rule of Thumb: Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Prescription of Antimicrobials in Aquaculture

Meteorological phenomena such as warm summer temperatures and increased numbers of sunlight hours have repeatedly been hypothesized to be associated with infectious diseases and an increased prescription of antimicrobial compounds in Danish aquaculture. To address this hypothesis, we prepared statistical models incorporating aquaculture production data from Danish Aquaculture, detailed records on prescription of antimicrobials from the Danish VETSTAT program, and meteorological data from 2001 to 2019 from the Danish Meteorological Institute. Separate series of models were made and refined for land-based and marine production, respectively. For both production forms, the models identify summer sunlight hours as having a significant influence on antimicrobial use. In addition to summer sunlight, spring sunlight and water temperature were integral, although not statistically significant, parameters when modeling antimicrobial use in marine production. Although the extensive availability and accuracy of relevant data are associated with Danish production, we believe the results allow for more general conclusions on the influence of meteorological parameters on outbreaks of bacterial pathogens in international aquaculture. Such insights could have a substantial impact on prophylactic strategies, fish husbandry, and our understanding of how increasing temperatures may affect future antimicrobial usage in the global aquaculture industry. IMPORTANCE Global aquaculture production has been rapidly increasing for decades and is set to play a pivotal role in feeding a growing human population. Along with the growth in aquaculture production, the annual global use of antimicrobials is estimated to increase by one-third between 2017 and 2030. Using detailed antimicrobial prescription records as a proxy for outbreaks, we were able to evaluate the effects of a variety of meteorological parameters through statistical modeling. Our results lend scientific support to informal observations from the industry, but more importantly, this study provides novel, essential information on the importance of abiotic factors that can, in turn, lead to improved prophylactic efforts and thus help to reduce antimicrobial use in global aquaculture.