Evaluation of the Likelihood of Establishing False Codling Moth (Thaumatotibia leucotreta) in Australia via the International Cut Flower Market

SIMPLE SUMMARY: False codling moth is a polyphagous pest that could be introduced and establish in Australia. This moth may threaten many commercial horticultural and agricultural production crops in Australia by damaging a wide range of agricultural crops including avocados, guavas, peaches, citrus, grapes, cotton, roses and some solanaceous crops. Since false codling moth has caused considerable financial loss to rose growers through damage to agricultural crops and horticultural products as well as the costs associated with its control and eradication in some African countries, it is prudent to predict likely establishment regions in Australia. The predictions were generated using a Species Distribution Model named Maxent. Results not only considered the climatic suitability but also overlaid the prediction maps with presence of susceptible hosts. The predictions indicated a range of near-ocean regions across Australia that were potentially suitable habitats. These results provided preliminary insight into the potential for false coding moth to establish in Australia. This research is valuable as the economic impact of this pest could be serious, with prediction and early detection key to preventing the establishment and spread of false codling moth across Australia. ABSTRACT: Kenya and some other African countries are threatened by a serious pest Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), the false codling moth. The detection of T. leucotreta is quite difficult due to the cryptic nature of the larvae during transportation and is therefore a concern for Australia. This insect is a known pest of agriculturally important crops. Here, Maxent was used to assess the biosecurity threat of T. leucotreta to Australia. Habitat suitability and risk assessment of T. leucotreta in Australia were identified based on threatened areas under suitable climatic conditions and the presence of hosts in a given habitat. Modeling indicated that Australia is vulnerable to invasion and establishment by T. leucotreta in some states and territories, particularly areas of western and southern Australia. Within these locations, the risk is associated with specific cropping areas. As such, invasion and establishment by T. leucotreta may have serious implications for Australia’s agricultural and horticultural industries e.g., the fruit and vegetable industries. This study will be used to inform the government and industry of the threat posed by T. leucotreta imported via the cut flower industry. Targeted preventative measures and trade policy could be introduced to protect Australia from invasion by this pest.