Spatio-Temporal Modelling Informing Wolbachia Replacement Releases in a Low Rainfall Climate

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Aedes aegypti is a mosquito that is responsible for spreading viral diseases including dengue fever, Zika, and chikungunya. Disease spread can be reduced by releasing mosquitoes containing bacteria known as Wolbachia, which inhibit transmission. Before such releases, it is important to collect data about where Ae. aegypti occur in urban landscapes and how populations vary over space and time. In this study, we present a pre-release analysis of mosquito populations using ovitraps (traps that provide a substrate for female mosquitoes to lay eggs), in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Our study contains a number of important findings. Firstly, we showed that there was no difference in the numbers of eggs laid between basement and non-basement locations. Secondly, we showed that, for some study sites, there was significant spatial structure to populations, meaning that where numbers of eggs were high (or low) they tended to remain high (or low) on average for many hundreds of meters. We also found that when mosquitoes are present in an area during the dry season, they tend to remain into the wet season; however, regions of high egg production could change between seasons. This suggests that in Jeddah’s arid environment, the quality of breeding environments is inconsistent over time. ABSTRACT: Releases of Aedes aegypti carrying Wolbachia bacteria are known to suppress arbovirus transmission and reduce the incidence of vector-borne diseases. In planning for Wolbachia releases in the arid environment of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, we collected entomological data with ovitraps across a 7-month period in four locations. Herein, we show that mosquito presence in basements does not differ from that of non-basement areas of buildings. In modelling mosquito presence across the study sites, we found the spatial structure to be statistically significant in one of the four sites, while a significant spatial structure was found for egg production data across three of the four sites. The length scales of the spatial covariance functions fitted to the egg production data ranged from 143 m to 574 m, indicating that high productivity regions can be extensive in size. Rank-correlation analyses indicated that mosquito presence tended to persist from the dry to wet season, but that egg production ranks at locations could reverse. The data suggest that, in Jeddah, the quality of the local environment for breeding can vary over time. The data support the feasibility of dry season releases but with release numbers needing to be flexible depending on local rates of invasion.