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Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach

Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable preventio...

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Autores principales: Hassan, Rowa, Cano, Jorge, Fronterre, Claudio, Bakhiet, Sahar, Fahal, Ahmed, Deribe, Kebede, Newport, Melanie
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9604875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36240229
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795
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author Hassan, Rowa
Cano, Jorge
Fronterre, Claudio
Bakhiet, Sahar
Fahal, Ahmed
Deribe, Kebede
Newport, Melanie
author_facet Hassan, Rowa
Cano, Jorge
Fronterre, Claudio
Bakhiet, Sahar
Fahal, Ahmed
Deribe, Kebede
Newport, Melanie
author_sort Hassan, Rowa
collection PubMed
description Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991–2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893–166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800–31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand.
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spelling pubmed-96048752022-10-27 Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach Hassan, Rowa Cano, Jorge Fronterre, Claudio Bakhiet, Sahar Fahal, Ahmed Deribe, Kebede Newport, Melanie PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991–2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893–166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800–31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand. Public Library of Science 2022-10-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9604875/ /pubmed/36240229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795 Text en © 2022 Hassan et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Hassan, Rowa
Cano, Jorge
Fronterre, Claudio
Bakhiet, Sahar
Fahal, Ahmed
Deribe, Kebede
Newport, Melanie
Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
title Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
title_full Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
title_fullStr Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
title_short Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
title_sort estimating the burden of mycetoma in sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9604875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36240229
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795
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