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Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach
Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable preventio...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9604875/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36240229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795 |
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author | Hassan, Rowa Cano, Jorge Fronterre, Claudio Bakhiet, Sahar Fahal, Ahmed Deribe, Kebede Newport, Melanie |
author_facet | Hassan, Rowa Cano, Jorge Fronterre, Claudio Bakhiet, Sahar Fahal, Ahmed Deribe, Kebede Newport, Melanie |
author_sort | Hassan, Rowa |
collection | PubMed |
description | Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991–2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893–166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800–31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9604875 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96048752022-10-27 Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach Hassan, Rowa Cano, Jorge Fronterre, Claudio Bakhiet, Sahar Fahal, Ahmed Deribe, Kebede Newport, Melanie PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991–2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893–166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800–31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand. Public Library of Science 2022-10-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9604875/ /pubmed/36240229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795 Text en © 2022 Hassan et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Hassan, Rowa Cano, Jorge Fronterre, Claudio Bakhiet, Sahar Fahal, Ahmed Deribe, Kebede Newport, Melanie Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach |
title | Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach |
title_full | Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach |
title_fullStr | Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach |
title_short | Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach |
title_sort | estimating the burden of mycetoma in sudan for the period 1991–2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9604875/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36240229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795 |
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