A Machine Learning Model to Predict Cardiovascular Events during Exercise Evaluation in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

Objective: To develop and optimize a machine learning prediction model for cardiovascular events during exercise evaluation in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). Methods: 16,645 cases of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) conducted in patients with CHD from January 2016 to September 2019 were retrospectively included. Clinical data before testing and data during exercise were collected and analyzed. Results: Cardiovascular events occurred during 505 CPETs (3.0%). No death was reported. Predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). AUCs for the SVM, logistic regression, GBDT and XGBoost were 0.686, 0.778, 0.784, and 0.794 respectively. Conclusions: Machine learning methods (especially XGBoost) can effectively predict cardiovascular events during exercise evaluation in CHD patients. Cardiovascular events were associated with age, male, diabetes and duration of diabetes, myocardial infarction history, smoking history, hyperlipidemia history, hypertension history, oxygen uptake, and ventilation efficiency indicators.