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Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study

Using the recently proposed Susceptible–Asymptomatic–Infected–Vaccinated–Removed (SAIVR) model, we study the impact of key factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine rollout effectiveness and the susceptibility to resurgent epidemics. The SAIVR model expands the widely used Susceptible–Infectious–Removed (S...

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Autores principales: Neofotistos, Georgios, Angeli, Mattia, Mattheakis, Marios, Kaxiras, Efthimios
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9608598/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36298791
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14102237
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author Neofotistos, Georgios
Angeli, Mattia
Mattheakis, Marios
Kaxiras, Efthimios
author_facet Neofotistos, Georgios
Angeli, Mattia
Mattheakis, Marios
Kaxiras, Efthimios
author_sort Neofotistos, Georgios
collection PubMed
description Using the recently proposed Susceptible–Asymptomatic–Infected–Vaccinated–Removed (SAIVR) model, we study the impact of key factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine rollout effectiveness and the susceptibility to resurgent epidemics. The SAIVR model expands the widely used Susceptible–Infectious–Removed (SIR) model for describing epidemics by adding compartments to include the asymptomatic infected (A) and the vaccinated (V) populations. We solve the model numerically to make predictions on the susceptibility to resurgent COVID-19 epidemics depending on initial vaccination coverage, importation loads, continuing vaccination, and more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, under persistent immunity and immunity waning conditions. The parameters of the model represent reported epidemiological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus such as the disease spread in countries with high levels of vaccination coverage. Our findings help explain how the combined effects of different vaccination coverage levels and waning immunity lead to distinct patterns of resurgent COVID-19 epidemics (either surges or endemic), which are observed in countries that implemented different COVID-19 health policies and achieved different vaccinated population plateaus after the vaccine rollouts in the first half of 2021.
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spelling pubmed-96085982022-10-28 Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study Neofotistos, Georgios Angeli, Mattia Mattheakis, Marios Kaxiras, Efthimios Viruses Article Using the recently proposed Susceptible–Asymptomatic–Infected–Vaccinated–Removed (SAIVR) model, we study the impact of key factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine rollout effectiveness and the susceptibility to resurgent epidemics. The SAIVR model expands the widely used Susceptible–Infectious–Removed (SIR) model for describing epidemics by adding compartments to include the asymptomatic infected (A) and the vaccinated (V) populations. We solve the model numerically to make predictions on the susceptibility to resurgent COVID-19 epidemics depending on initial vaccination coverage, importation loads, continuing vaccination, and more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, under persistent immunity and immunity waning conditions. The parameters of the model represent reported epidemiological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus such as the disease spread in countries with high levels of vaccination coverage. Our findings help explain how the combined effects of different vaccination coverage levels and waning immunity lead to distinct patterns of resurgent COVID-19 epidemics (either surges or endemic), which are observed in countries that implemented different COVID-19 health policies and achieved different vaccinated population plateaus after the vaccine rollouts in the first half of 2021. MDPI 2022-10-12 /pmc/articles/PMC9608598/ /pubmed/36298791 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14102237 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Neofotistos, Georgios
Angeli, Mattia
Mattheakis, Marios
Kaxiras, Efthimios
Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study
title Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study
title_full Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study
title_fullStr Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study
title_full_unstemmed Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study
title_short Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study
title_sort susceptibility to resurgent covid-19 outbreaks following vaccine rollouts: a modeling study
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9608598/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36298791
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14102237
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