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Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure
BACKGROUND: The risk factors for acute heart failure (AHF) vary, reducing the accuracy and convenience of AHF prediction. The most common causes of AHF are coronary heart disease (CHD). A short-term clinical predictive model is needed to predict the outcome of AHF, which can help guide early therape...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9609152/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36312262 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fcvm.2022.976844 |
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author | Huang, Xiyi Yang, Shaomin Chen, Xinjie Zhao, Qiang Pan, Jialing Lai, Shaofen Ouyang, Fusheng Deng, Lingda Du, Yongxing Chen, Jiacheng Hu, Qiugen Guo, Baoliang Liu, Jiemei |
author_facet | Huang, Xiyi Yang, Shaomin Chen, Xinjie Zhao, Qiang Pan, Jialing Lai, Shaofen Ouyang, Fusheng Deng, Lingda Du, Yongxing Chen, Jiacheng Hu, Qiugen Guo, Baoliang Liu, Jiemei |
author_sort | Huang, Xiyi |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The risk factors for acute heart failure (AHF) vary, reducing the accuracy and convenience of AHF prediction. The most common causes of AHF are coronary heart disease (CHD). A short-term clinical predictive model is needed to predict the outcome of AHF, which can help guide early therapeutic intervention. This study aimed to develop a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in CHD patients combined with AHF. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on data of 692 patients CHD combined with AHF admitted between January 2020 and December 2020 at a single center. After systemic treatment, patients were discharged and followed up for 1-year for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The clinical characteristics of all patients were collected. Patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 484) and validation cohort (n = 208). Step-wise regression using the Akaike information criterion was performed to select predictors associated with 1-year MACE prognosis. A clinical predictive model was constructed based on the selected predictors. The predictive performance and discriminative ability of the predictive model were determined using the area under the curve, calibration curve, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: On step-wise regression analysis of the training cohort, predictors for MACE of CHD patients combined with AHF were diabetes, NYHA ≥ 3, HF history, Hcy, Lp-PLA2, and NT-proBNP, which were incorporated into the predictive model. The AUC of the predictive model was 0.847 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.811–0.882] in the training cohort and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.780–0.893) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve indicated good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: The proposed clinical prediction model we have established is effective, which can accurately predict the occurrence of early MACE in CHD patients combined with AHF. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9609152 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96091522022-10-28 Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure Huang, Xiyi Yang, Shaomin Chen, Xinjie Zhao, Qiang Pan, Jialing Lai, Shaofen Ouyang, Fusheng Deng, Lingda Du, Yongxing Chen, Jiacheng Hu, Qiugen Guo, Baoliang Liu, Jiemei Front Cardiovasc Med Cardiovascular Medicine BACKGROUND: The risk factors for acute heart failure (AHF) vary, reducing the accuracy and convenience of AHF prediction. The most common causes of AHF are coronary heart disease (CHD). A short-term clinical predictive model is needed to predict the outcome of AHF, which can help guide early therapeutic intervention. This study aimed to develop a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in CHD patients combined with AHF. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on data of 692 patients CHD combined with AHF admitted between January 2020 and December 2020 at a single center. After systemic treatment, patients were discharged and followed up for 1-year for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The clinical characteristics of all patients were collected. Patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 484) and validation cohort (n = 208). Step-wise regression using the Akaike information criterion was performed to select predictors associated with 1-year MACE prognosis. A clinical predictive model was constructed based on the selected predictors. The predictive performance and discriminative ability of the predictive model were determined using the area under the curve, calibration curve, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: On step-wise regression analysis of the training cohort, predictors for MACE of CHD patients combined with AHF were diabetes, NYHA ≥ 3, HF history, Hcy, Lp-PLA2, and NT-proBNP, which were incorporated into the predictive model. The AUC of the predictive model was 0.847 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.811–0.882] in the training cohort and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.780–0.893) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve indicated good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: The proposed clinical prediction model we have established is effective, which can accurately predict the occurrence of early MACE in CHD patients combined with AHF. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-10-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9609152/ /pubmed/36312262 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fcvm.2022.976844 Text en Copyright © 2022 Huang, Yang, Chen, Zhao, Pan, Lai, Ouyang, Deng, Du, Chen, Hu, Guo and Liu. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Cardiovascular Medicine Huang, Xiyi Yang, Shaomin Chen, Xinjie Zhao, Qiang Pan, Jialing Lai, Shaofen Ouyang, Fusheng Deng, Lingda Du, Yongxing Chen, Jiacheng Hu, Qiugen Guo, Baoliang Liu, Jiemei Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure |
title | Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure |
title_full | Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure |
title_fullStr | Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure |
title_short | Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure |
title_sort | development and validation of a clinical predictive model for 1-year prognosis in coronary heart disease patients combine with acute heart failure |
topic | Cardiovascular Medicine |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9609152/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36312262 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fcvm.2022.976844 |
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