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Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign

While understanding the time evolution of Covid-19 pandemic is needed to plan economics and tune sanitary policies, a quantitative information of the recurrent epidemic waves is elusive. This work describes a statistical physics study of the subsequent waves in the epidemic spreading of Covid-19 and...

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Autores principales: Campi, Gaetano, Perali, Andrea, Marcelli, Augusto, Bianconi, Antonio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9612611/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36302922
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22816-7
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author Campi, Gaetano
Perali, Andrea
Marcelli, Augusto
Bianconi, Antonio
author_facet Campi, Gaetano
Perali, Andrea
Marcelli, Augusto
Bianconi, Antonio
author_sort Campi, Gaetano
collection PubMed
description While understanding the time evolution of Covid-19 pandemic is needed to plan economics and tune sanitary policies, a quantitative information of the recurrent epidemic waves is elusive. This work describes a statistical physics study of the subsequent waves in the epidemic spreading of Covid-19 and disclose the frequency components of the epidemic waves pattern over two years in United States, United Kingdom and Japan. These countries have been taken as representative cases of different containment policies such as "Mitigation" (USA and UK) and "Zero Covid" (Japan) policies. The supercritical phases in spreading have been identified by intervals with RIC-index > 0. We have used the wavelet transform of infection and fatality waves to get the spectral analysis showing a dominant component around 130 days. Data of the world dynamic clearly indicates also the crossover to a different phase due to the enforcement of vaccination campaign. In Japan and United Kingdom, we observed the emergence in the infection waves of a long period component (~ 170 days) during vaccination campaign. These results indicate slowing down of the epidemic spreading dynamics due to the vaccination campaign. Finally, we find an intrinsic difference between infection and fatality waves pointing to a non-trivial variation of the lethality due to different gene variants.
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spelling pubmed-96126112022-10-28 Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign Campi, Gaetano Perali, Andrea Marcelli, Augusto Bianconi, Antonio Sci Rep Article While understanding the time evolution of Covid-19 pandemic is needed to plan economics and tune sanitary policies, a quantitative information of the recurrent epidemic waves is elusive. This work describes a statistical physics study of the subsequent waves in the epidemic spreading of Covid-19 and disclose the frequency components of the epidemic waves pattern over two years in United States, United Kingdom and Japan. These countries have been taken as representative cases of different containment policies such as "Mitigation" (USA and UK) and "Zero Covid" (Japan) policies. The supercritical phases in spreading have been identified by intervals with RIC-index > 0. We have used the wavelet transform of infection and fatality waves to get the spectral analysis showing a dominant component around 130 days. Data of the world dynamic clearly indicates also the crossover to a different phase due to the enforcement of vaccination campaign. In Japan and United Kingdom, we observed the emergence in the infection waves of a long period component (~ 170 days) during vaccination campaign. These results indicate slowing down of the epidemic spreading dynamics due to the vaccination campaign. Finally, we find an intrinsic difference between infection and fatality waves pointing to a non-trivial variation of the lethality due to different gene variants. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-10-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9612611/ /pubmed/36302922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22816-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Campi, Gaetano
Perali, Andrea
Marcelli, Augusto
Bianconi, Antonio
Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign
title Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign
title_full Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign
title_fullStr Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign
title_full_unstemmed Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign
title_short Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign
title_sort sars-cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9612611/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36302922
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22816-7
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