Prognostic factors in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia—novel tools for determining patient outcomes

BACKGROUND: Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is a devastating disease with poor prognosis. Due to the multitude of underlying factors, prediction of outcomes remains poor. We aimed to identify factors governing diagnosis and survival in AMI and develop novel prognostic tools. METHODS: This monocentric retrospective study analyzed patients with suspected AMI undergoing imaging between January 2014 and December 2019. Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with confirmed AMI undergoing surgery. Nomograms were calculated based on multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Five hundred and thirty-nine patients underwent imaging for clinically suspected AMI, with 216 examinations showing radiological indication of AMI. Intestinal necrosis (IN) was confirmed in 125 undergoing surgery, 58 of which survived and 67 died (median 9 days after diagnosis, IQR 22). Increasing age, ASA score, pneumatosis intestinalis, and dilated bowel loops were significantly associated with presence of IN upon radiological suspicion. In contrast, decreased pH, elevated creatinine, radiological atherosclerosis, vascular occlusion (versus non-occlusive AMI), and colonic affection (compared to small bowel ischemia only) were associated with impaired survival in patients undergoing surgery. Based on the identified factors, we developed two nomograms to aid in prediction of IN upon radiological suspicion (C-Index = 0.726) and survival in patients undergoing surgery for IN (C-Index = 0.791). CONCLUSION: As AMI remains a condition with high mortality, we identified factors predicting occurrence of IN with suspected AMI and survival when undergoing surgery for IN. We provide two new tools, which combine these parameters and might prove helpful in treatment of patients with AMI.