Nomogram development and validation to predict Ki-67 expression of hepatocellular carcinoma derived from Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI combined with T1 mapping

OBJECTIVE: As an important biomarker to reflect tumor cell proliferation and tumor aggressiveness, Ki-67 is closely related to the high early recurrence rate and poor prognosis, and pretreatment evaluation of Ki-67 expression possibly provides a more accurate prognosis assessment and more better treatment plan. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (Gd-EOB-DTPA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) combined with T1 mapping to predict Ki-67 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: This two-center study retrospectively enrolled 148 consecutive patients who underwent preoperative Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI T1 mapping and surgically confirmed HCC from July 2019 to December 2020. The correlation between quantitative parameters from T1 mapping, ADC, and Ki-67 was explored. Three cohorts were constructed: a training cohort (n = 73) and an internal validation cohort (n = 31) from Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and an external validation cohort (n = 44) from the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, South China University of Technology. The clinical variables and MRI qualitative and quantitative parameters associational with Ki-67 expression were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram was developed based on these associated with Ki-67 expression in the training cohort and validated in the internal and external validation cohorts. RESULTS: T1rt-Pre and T1rt-20min were strongly positively correlated with Ki-67 (r = 0.627, r = 0.607, P < 0.001); the apparent diffusion coefficient value was moderately negatively correlated with Ki-67 (r = -0.401, P < 0.001). Predictors of Ki-67 expression included in the nomogram were peritumoral enhancement, peritumoral hypointensity, T1rt-20min, and tumor margin, while arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE) was not a significant predictor even included in the regression model. The nomograms achieved good concordance indices in predicting Ki-67 expression in the training and two validation cohorts (0.919, 0.925, 0.850), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: T1rt-Pre and T1rt-20min had a strong positive correlation with the Ki-67 expression in HCC, and Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI combined with T1 mapping-based nomogram effectively predicts high Ki-67 expression in HCC.