Prognostic risk factor analysis and nomogram construction for primary liver cancer in elderly patients based on SEER database

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk factors and construct a nomogram model for the prognosis of primary liver cancer in the elderly based on the data from the US SEER database. METHODS: The latest data of patients with primary liver cancer were extracted from the SEER database using SEER*STAT software, and the required variables were included. The data were screened and then divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. A nomogram model was constructed by screening the variables through univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. The C-Index, ROC and calibration curves were used for model evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 10 824 eligible cases from 2004 to 2017 were extracted, among which, 7757 cases were included in the training cohort and 3247 in the validation cohort. The C-Index of the model was 0.747 (in the training cohort) and 0.773 (in the validation cohort). The 3-year area under the curve (AUCs) of the training and the validation cohorts were 0.760 and 0.750, and the 5-year AUCs of the two cohorts were 0.761 and 0.748. The calibration curves showed an ideal calibration of the constructed model. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram model constructed followed by Cox regression analysis showed moderate calibration and discrimination property, and can provide reference to a certain extent for furture clinical application of primary liver cancer in the elderly.