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Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level

Research on the relationship between rainfall variability and conflicts has yielded contradictory results. This study is the first to show that the significance of the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts depends on the temporal unit of analysis. We prove this point by comparing the statistic...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema, Managi, Shunsuke
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9616923/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36307515
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23079-y
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author Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema
Managi, Shunsuke
author_facet Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema
Managi, Shunsuke
author_sort Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema
collection PubMed
description Research on the relationship between rainfall variability and conflicts has yielded contradictory results. This study is the first to show that the significance of the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts depends on the temporal unit of analysis. We prove this point by comparing the statistical significance of the linkages between georeferenced conflicts and rainfall variabilities at the monthly and annual levels with panel data analyses from 1989 to 2020. We find that a 10 percent increase in monthly rainfall decreases the risk of conflict incidence by 0.0298 percent, but annual rainfall variability is not statistically linked to conflict outbreaks. These statistically significant disparities result from the aggregation of data dispersion and the disregard for the timing of the impact of rainfall on conflicts. These findings highlight the importance of information on monthly rainfall variation when estimating the impact of rainfall on conflicts.
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spelling pubmed-96169232022-10-30 Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema Managi, Shunsuke Sci Rep Article Research on the relationship between rainfall variability and conflicts has yielded contradictory results. This study is the first to show that the significance of the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts depends on the temporal unit of analysis. We prove this point by comparing the statistical significance of the linkages between georeferenced conflicts and rainfall variabilities at the monthly and annual levels with panel data analyses from 1989 to 2020. We find that a 10 percent increase in monthly rainfall decreases the risk of conflict incidence by 0.0298 percent, but annual rainfall variability is not statistically linked to conflict outbreaks. These statistically significant disparities result from the aggregation of data dispersion and the disregard for the timing of the impact of rainfall on conflicts. These findings highlight the importance of information on monthly rainfall variation when estimating the impact of rainfall on conflicts. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-10-28 /pmc/articles/PMC9616923/ /pubmed/36307515 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23079-y Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema
Managi, Shunsuke
Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
title Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
title_full Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
title_fullStr Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
title_full_unstemmed Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
title_short Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
title_sort identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9616923/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36307515
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23079-y
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