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Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level
Research on the relationship between rainfall variability and conflicts has yielded contradictory results. This study is the first to show that the significance of the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts depends on the temporal unit of analysis. We prove this point by comparing the statistic...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9616923/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36307515 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23079-y |
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author | Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema Managi, Shunsuke |
author_facet | Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema Managi, Shunsuke |
author_sort | Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema |
collection | PubMed |
description | Research on the relationship between rainfall variability and conflicts has yielded contradictory results. This study is the first to show that the significance of the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts depends on the temporal unit of analysis. We prove this point by comparing the statistical significance of the linkages between georeferenced conflicts and rainfall variabilities at the monthly and annual levels with panel data analyses from 1989 to 2020. We find that a 10 percent increase in monthly rainfall decreases the risk of conflict incidence by 0.0298 percent, but annual rainfall variability is not statistically linked to conflict outbreaks. These statistically significant disparities result from the aggregation of data dispersion and the disregard for the timing of the impact of rainfall on conflicts. These findings highlight the importance of information on monthly rainfall variation when estimating the impact of rainfall on conflicts. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9616923 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96169232022-10-30 Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema Managi, Shunsuke Sci Rep Article Research on the relationship between rainfall variability and conflicts has yielded contradictory results. This study is the first to show that the significance of the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts depends on the temporal unit of analysis. We prove this point by comparing the statistical significance of the linkages between georeferenced conflicts and rainfall variabilities at the monthly and annual levels with panel data analyses from 1989 to 2020. We find that a 10 percent increase in monthly rainfall decreases the risk of conflict incidence by 0.0298 percent, but annual rainfall variability is not statistically linked to conflict outbreaks. These statistically significant disparities result from the aggregation of data dispersion and the disregard for the timing of the impact of rainfall on conflicts. These findings highlight the importance of information on monthly rainfall variation when estimating the impact of rainfall on conflicts. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-10-28 /pmc/articles/PMC9616923/ /pubmed/36307515 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23079-y Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Coulibaly, Thierry Yerema Managi, Shunsuke Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level |
title | Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level |
title_full | Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level |
title_fullStr | Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level |
title_full_unstemmed | Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level |
title_short | Identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level |
title_sort | identifying the impact of rainfall variability on conflicts at the monthly level |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9616923/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36307515 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23079-y |
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