Preoperative serum CA19-9 predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula in PDAC patients: retrospective analysis at a single institution

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a critical complication of pancreatectomy in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Recent papers reported that serum carbohydrate antigen (CA)19-9 levels predicted long-term prognosis. We investigated whether preoperative serum CA19-9 levels were associated with POPF in PDAC patients. METHODS: This cohort study was conducted at a single institution retrospectively. Clinicopathologic features were determined using medical records. RESULTS: Among of 196 consecutive patients who underwent pancreatectomy against PDAC, 180 patients whose CA19-9 levels were above the measurement sensitivity, were registered in this study. The patients consisted of 122 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy and 58 patients who underwent distal pancreatectomy. Several clinicopathological factors, including CA 19-9 level, as well as surgical factors were determined retrospectively based on the medical records. Patients with high CA19-9 levels had a significantly higher incidence of POPF than those with low levels (43.9 vs. 13.0%, P < 0.0001). The receiver operating characteristic curves calculated that the cutoff CA19-9 value to predict POPF was 428 U/mL. CA19-9, BMI, curability, and histology were statistically significant risk factors for POPF by univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that CA19-9 and BMI levels were statistically significant independent risk factors for POPF. CA19-9 levels were correlated with both histology and curability. Disease free survival and overall survival of patients with higher levels of CA19-9 were significantly shorter than that of patients with lower levels of preoperative serum CA19-9. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing pancreatectomy for PDAC, higher preoperative CA19-9 levels are a significant predictor for POPF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12893-022-01825-3.