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Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation
This paper develops three scenarios for the aviation industry's recovery from COVID-19 until 2030 by utilizing the scenario methodology. Besides the short- and mid-term pandemic development, the study takes into account the industry's adaptation to changes in the market environment, e.g.,...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier Ltd.
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9618444/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36340887 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102325 |
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author | Michelmann, Johannes Schmalz, Ulrike Becker, Axel Stroh, Florian Behnke, Sebastian Hornung, Mirko |
author_facet | Michelmann, Johannes Schmalz, Ulrike Becker, Axel Stroh, Florian Behnke, Sebastian Hornung, Mirko |
author_sort | Michelmann, Johannes |
collection | PubMed |
description | This paper develops three scenarios for the aviation industry's recovery from COVID-19 until 2030 by utilizing the scenario methodology. Besides the short- and mid-term pandemic development, the study takes into account the industry's adaptation to changes in the market environment, e.g., toward sustainability and hygiene requirements. The resulting scenarios include the expected point in time of full air traffic recovery to pre-crisis levels. Subsequent implications suggest that most COVID-19-related hygiene measures along the travel chain disappear after the pandemic is contained. Some measures might serve as a differentiator between airline business models, while others are expected to become a new standard. Implications for environmental awareness and resulting operational and technical measures include changes in society's attitude toward traveling post-pandemic, especially in light of varying levels of environmental awareness. The presented scenarios help to identify the range of plausible development paths, thus building the basis for future model-based research. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9618444 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Elsevier Ltd. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96184442022-10-31 Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation Michelmann, Johannes Schmalz, Ulrike Becker, Axel Stroh, Florian Behnke, Sebastian Hornung, Mirko J Air Transp Manag Article This paper develops three scenarios for the aviation industry's recovery from COVID-19 until 2030 by utilizing the scenario methodology. Besides the short- and mid-term pandemic development, the study takes into account the industry's adaptation to changes in the market environment, e.g., toward sustainability and hygiene requirements. The resulting scenarios include the expected point in time of full air traffic recovery to pre-crisis levels. Subsequent implications suggest that most COVID-19-related hygiene measures along the travel chain disappear after the pandemic is contained. Some measures might serve as a differentiator between airline business models, while others are expected to become a new standard. Implications for environmental awareness and resulting operational and technical measures include changes in society's attitude toward traveling post-pandemic, especially in light of varying levels of environmental awareness. The presented scenarios help to identify the range of plausible development paths, thus building the basis for future model-based research. Elsevier Ltd. 2023-01 2022-10-31 /pmc/articles/PMC9618444/ /pubmed/36340887 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102325 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Michelmann, Johannes Schmalz, Ulrike Becker, Axel Stroh, Florian Behnke, Sebastian Hornung, Mirko Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation |
title | Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation |
title_full | Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation |
title_fullStr | Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation |
title_full_unstemmed | Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation |
title_short | Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation |
title_sort | influence of covid-19 on air travel - a scenario study toward future trusted aviation |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9618444/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36340887 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102325 |
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