Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging-based radiomics for the prediction of progression-free survival in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

To establish a multidimensional nomogram model for predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and risk stratification in patients with advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This retrospective cross-sectional study included 156 patients with advanced NPC who underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI). Radiomic features were extracted from the efflux rate constant (K(trans) ) and extracellular extravascular volume (V(e) ) mapping derived from DCE-MRI. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analysis was applied for feature selection. The Radscore was constructed using the selected features with their respective weights in the LASSO Cox regression analysis. A nomogram model combining the Radscore and clinical factors was built using multivariate Cox regression analysis. The C-index was used to assess the discrimination power of the Radscore and nomogram. The Kaplan–Meier method was used for survival analysis. Of the 360 radiomic features, 28 were selected (7, 6, and 15 features extracted from K(trans) , Ve, and K(trans) +V(e) images, respectively). The combined Radscore (k) (trans) (+Ve) (C-index, 0.703, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.571–0.836) showed higher efficacy in predicting the prognosis of advanced NPC than Radscore (k) (trans) (C-index, 0.693; 95% CI, 0.560–0.826) and Radscore (Ve) (C-index, 0.614; 95% CI, 0.481–0.746) did. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed clinical stage, T stage, and treatment with nimotuzumab as risk factors for PFS. The nomogram established by Radscore (k) (trans) (+Ve) and risk factors (C-index, 0.732; 95% CI: 0.599–0.864) was better than Radscore (k) (trans) (+Ve) in predicting PFS in patients with advanced NPC. A lower Radscore (k) (trans) (+Ve) (HR 3.5584, 95% CI 2.1341–5.933), lower clinical stage (hazard ratio [HR] 1.5982, 95% CI 0.5262–4.854), lower T stage (HR 1.4365, 95% CI 0.6745–3.060), and nimotuzumab (NTZ) treatment (HR 0.7879, 95% CI 0.4899–1.267) were associated with longer PFS. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed a lower PFS in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (p<0.0001). The nomogram based on combined pretreatment DCE-MRI radiomics features, NTZ, and clinicopathological risk factors may be considered as a noninvasive imaging marker for predicting individual PFS in patients with advanced NPC.