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Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions
Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. Th...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9632437/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36337179 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.1026592 |
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author | Yadav, Shankar Delgado, Amy H. Hagerman, Amy D. Bertram, Miranda R. Moreno-Torres, Karla I. Stenfeldt, Carolina Holmstrom, Lindsey Arzt, Jonathan |
author_facet | Yadav, Shankar Delgado, Amy H. Hagerman, Amy D. Bertram, Miranda R. Moreno-Torres, Karla I. Stenfeldt, Carolina Holmstrom, Lindsey Arzt, Jonathan |
author_sort | Yadav, Shankar |
collection | PubMed |
description | Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9632437 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96324372022-11-04 Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions Yadav, Shankar Delgado, Amy H. Hagerman, Amy D. Bertram, Miranda R. Moreno-Torres, Karla I. Stenfeldt, Carolina Holmstrom, Lindsey Arzt, Jonathan Front Vet Sci Veterinary Science Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-10-20 /pmc/articles/PMC9632437/ /pubmed/36337179 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.1026592 Text en Copyright © 2022 Yadav, Delgado, Hagerman, Bertram, Moreno-Torres, Stenfeldt, Holmstrom and Arzt. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Veterinary Science Yadav, Shankar Delgado, Amy H. Hagerman, Amy D. Bertram, Miranda R. Moreno-Torres, Karla I. Stenfeldt, Carolina Holmstrom, Lindsey Arzt, Jonathan Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
title | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
title_full | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
title_fullStr | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
title_short | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
title_sort | epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in fmd-free regions |
topic | Veterinary Science |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9632437/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36337179 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.1026592 |
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