Conversations With Individuals on the Fence about CV-19 Vaccination: Analysis of Lives Saved by Vaccine vs. Natural Infection Mortality and Other Reflections

As of June 15, 2021, from 672,000 to 912,000 deaths have been averted through vaccination of 48% of the US population. Because 52% remain unvaccinated, 728,000 to 988,000 lives remain at risk. These deaths can be spared, and the pandemic stopped in its tracks provided a final national vaccination rate of 84% is achieved. We aim to demonstrate in our analysis the number of lives saved that can be attributed to CV-19 vaccination vs the mortality rate of natural infection seen in unvaccinated individuals. However, time is short given the recent exponential rise of the highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant. Delta infection results in a thousand-fold increase in viral load and a transmissibility 2.25x that of the original SARS-CoV-2 strain. Predominance of the Delta variant has already resulted in Covid-19 surges in area with low vaccination rates. An aggressive and timely vaccination campaign is being attempted. We hope our analysis helps convince individuals ‘on the fence’ that vaccination is essential if the pandemic is to be ended in the United States.